EU needs to find energy supply alternatives

Ah, it's that time of year again in what was once the USSR - temperatures are dropping, demand for oil and gas is on the rise and Russia is once again throwing its weight around with its neighbours. And the implications for Europe, which is deeply dependent on Russian energy, are frightening at best.

And while occasionally a leader like Germany's Angela Merkel speaks up about Russia's increasingly aggressive use of its growing energy power, too many seem to view Vladimir Putin's Russia as a friendly, chained circus bear, rather than the dangerous wild animal it really is.

Earlier this month, Gazprom started rumbling it was considering reducing gas supplies to Ukraine unless that country repaid a $1.3 billion debt.

If it were just an ongoing spat between Russia and one of its Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) neighbours, the whole mess could probably be ignored by the European Union. But because roughly 80 per cent of its Russian gas flows through several Ukrainian pipelines, a cutoff would mean everyone goes without.

Considering past disputes there seems to be no question that Russia will wield its energy power when it feels its former possessions are stepping out of line. The question is, what if an increasingly autocratic Putin uses Russia's energy reserves as a club should the European Union not toe the line?

When gas flow through Ukraine was cut in January 2006, Europe seemed shocked that their friendly, glasnost-loving Russians actually shut off the taps during the height of winter demand.

On the surface, this may just look like a spat between Mother Russia and a country that it would like to retain some control of what was once its own.

Most thought the wrinkles in the current price dispute had been ironed out. But it looks like a parliamentary election will probably result in victory for the leaders of the 2004 Orange Revolution, which saw Viktor Yushchenko take the presidency over Moscow's handpicked candidate.

Putin has never taken the slight lightly, and the original dispute was widely seen as punishment for Yushchenko's lean towards the EU and Nato. This recent flare-up appears to be of a similar nature - follow the rules or bear the brunt of Russia's displeasure.

Then in January of this year, Belarus felt the power of the energy-fat bear when Gazprom shut off the flow of gas over yet another price dispute. Yet again, European supplies were pinched as well.

There does seem to be some common sense in the EU, however. At least the bloc's energy commissioner made the profound leap after the 2006 spat that Europe needed a more "cohesive policy on security of energy supply." Wow, what a shocker.

Meanwhile, the bloc is searching for options that would ease its growing dependence on Russian energy, but progress is slow.

But poor infrastructure and sporadic instability continues to make African energy problematic as a replacement source, while a possible pipeline through Turkey has yet to materialise thanks to ongoing political fighting with the EU.

But what few people seem to realise is that this is not the Russia of Mikhail Gorbachev or even Boris Yeltsin. It is no longer the friendly pro-west bear or even the sad, drunken bear - this is the strong mother bear, looking after her interests. That means anyone dependent on its energy is going to find themselves on the wrong end of a very short chain hooked to a hoop through their nose.

The writer is a former Business Editor at Gulf News, and has covered energy issues in Central and Eastern Europe, the Baltics and the Middle East.