Crisis will change direction of global conflicts

The First and Second World Wars were preceded by economic crises, which were among the main causes of these wars in the beginning and middle of last century.

As the signs of the current global economic crisis started to emerge under the former neo-conservative US administration, the whole world suffered uncertainty and restlessness.

Some analysts believe the intensification of the crisis could usher in new destructive wars in many regions, including the Middle East.

Meanwhile, the tension between Moscow and Washington reached its peak by the end of the second term of former US president George W. Bush in office, after he decided to implement the missile shield programme in Poland and the Czech Republic.

Russia did not hesitate to respond by announcing it was going to deploy missiles in Kaliningrad, which is near Poland and the Baltic countries, despite economic problems resulting from the global crisis.

This gave a strong boost to the opinions that finding a way out of the crisis would be very costly, not only due to financial losses, but due to war losses, which may lead to the loss of millions of lives as well.

This may be a premature analysis, especially after the new US President Barack Obama took office, which changed the rules of the game.

It appears that the current financial crisis will not spark a world war, as was the case with the previous two world wars.

On the contrary, the current crisis may lead to the cancellation of war projects which were planned by the former US administration.

Obama has a different opinion. In the first week of his presidency, he practically cancelled many wars, including the "war on Islam".

The US President expressed his readiness to turn a new page in the relationship with the Arab and Muslim nations, while the war on Gaza stopped.

He also sent positive signals to the countries previously labelled as the "axis of evil" and suspended the missile shield project in Poland and the Czech Republic.

Therefore, the statement by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton that the world breathed a sigh of relief with Obama in office was true, as many regions were relieved from the fear of a new world war as a result of the missile shield project.

Thus, the strategic and security repercussions of the current financial crisis are totally different to the repercussions of the previous two crises. This is simply because solutions will not be reached by starting a new world war.

They could be achieved through international cooperation and coordination between countries to contain the crisis and put the world economy on track again, but under new circumstances and a new balance of global strategic and economic powers.

It is no secret that the US wars in Iraq and Afghanistan exhausted the US economy and cost it more than $3 billion (Dh11 billion) monthly.

The crisis, despite its magnitude, has chganged the direction and nature of global conflicts and opened new horizons for building new international relations.

Unipolarity no longer has a place in this new arrangement of international relations, and thanks to the crisis, the globe has turned into a multipolar world.

This strategic shift offers many opportunities to establish new relations based on equality among countries of the world.

Dr Mohammad Al Asoomi is a UAE economic expert.

A very nice and thought provoking article. The last thing we need is a war. Obama has started his term with some very good decisions.
Nikki
Dubai,UAE
Posted: February 05, 2009, 10:05