Paris: Global oil supplies eased by 180 000 barrels per day (bpd) in February, to 96.5 million barrels per day (mb/d), on lower Opec and non-Opec output, according to the newly released IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) for March. But production stood 1.8 mb/d above a year earlier, as a slight decline in non-Opec was more than offset by Opec gains. Non-Opec production in 2016 is estimated to fall by 750,000 bpd, to 57.0 million bpd, 100,000 bpd less than foreseen in last month’s Report.
Opec crude oil production eased by 90,000 bpd in February to a still-robust 32.61 million bpd with losses from Iraq, Nigeria and the UAE partly offset by a substantial rise in flows from post-sanctions Iran. Saudi Arabia, Opec’s largest producer, held supplies steady.
Sharp decelerations in demand growth — particularly in the United States and China — pulled global growth down to a one-year low of 1.2 million bpd in the fourth quarter of last year compared with the year earlier, dramatically below the near five-year high of 2.3 million bpd in the previous quarter. A gain of around 1.2 million bpd is forecast for 2016.
OECD commercial inventories gained 20.2 million barrels in January while forward demand cover remained comfortable at 32.7 days. Preliminary data suggest that in February, OECD inventories drew for the first time in a year while volumes of crude held in floating storage increased.
Global refinery throughputs are estimated at 79.1 million bpd in the current quarter, reflecting weak OECD refinery throughput and a shift of peak spring maintenance to this quarter. Annual growth in the fourth quarter of last year fell to below 1 million bpd amid product stock builds and in line with a slowdown in global oil demand growth.
The March OMR examines in-depth the proposed offer by Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Qatar and Russia to freeze production at January levels and also features a focus on the changing nature of second-quarter oil demand particularly as non-OECD consumers rise in prominence.
