Damascus: Loyalists of President Michel Aoun have raised eyebrows in Lebanon — yet again — this time by floating the idea of extending his mandate, which ends in October 2022.
The idea has been making the rounds for weeks, in closed circles however, without ever being discussed openly until last week, when it was floated on television by MP Maroun Aoun, a relative of the octogenarian president and member of his Free Patriotic Movement (FPM).
Members of the FPM immediately jumped on the proposal, describing it as the logical thing to do in order to avoid a presidential vacuum in October 2022. The only alternative to Aoun ought to be his son-in-law Gibran Basil, head of the FPM who has an open ambition of replacing his father-in-law at the Baabda Palace.
• It was based on the 1932 census and was reached between President Beshara Al Khoury and his Prime Minister Riad Al Solh in back 1943. It stipulated that the presidency from hereon would always go to a Maronite Christian, while the premiership would be for Sunni Muslims.
• The president was given wide executive powers, due to the then-numerical superiority of Lebanese Christians. Among those powers was the right to hire and fire his prime minister, which continued to be the norm until September 1989.
Technical problems
Extending a president’s mandate requires two things, constitutionally. One is a full-fledge premier, not a caretaker one as the case of Lebanon’s incumbent premier, Hassan Diab. Secondly it requires a two-third vote of approval in Parliament. Aoun currently controls 29 seats, which when counted with those of his allies in Hezbollah and Amal, give him a majority in the chamber.
If Prime Minister Saad Hariri succeeds at forming a government, however, he would undoubtedly block such an idea, given the open rivalry between him and the Aounists. They refused to nominate him for the premiership last October and in turn, he has persistently refused accommodating their long list of demands, which includes, among other things, the right to name all nine Christian ministers in the government. Hariri’s cabinet, if it ever sees the light of day, would probably be the last in Aoun’s era and is expected to supervise the upcoming presidential elections.
• The decision raised high concern, as many lawmakers argued that it was a breach of the 1943 National Pact. Aoun remained undaunted, however, refusing to leave Baabda Palace.
• He even waged two wars to stay in power, one against the Syrians, known as Harb Al Tahrir (War of Liberation) and another against his Christian rival Samir Geagea, which was called Harb Al Ilgha (War of Cancellation). He was eventually forced out of office by the Syrian Army in October 1990 and fled to France, where he remained until 2005.
• The decision raised high concern, as many lawmakers argued that it was a breach of the 1943 National Pact. Aoun remained undaunted, however, refusing to leave Baabda Palace.
• Aoun even waged two wars to stay in power, one against the Syrians, known as Harb Al Tahrir (War of Liberation) and another against his Christian rival Samir Geagea, which was called Harb Al Ilgha (War of Cancellation). He was eventually forced out of office by the Syrian Army in October 1990 and fled to France, where he remained until 2005.
Presidential hopefuls
Other heavyweights are opposed to extension of Aoun’s presidency, like Suleiman Frangieh of the Marada Party and Samir Geagea of the Lebanese Forces (LF). Both have presidential ambitions of their own and refuse both extending Aoun’s mandate and grooming Basil to replace him.
Frangieh had been promised the presidency by Hezbollah back in 2016 but they backed out on him, citing Aoun’s age, saying that this was his last chance at becoming president, a dream that he has harboured throughout his career. They feel obliged to accommodate him today, given that his party is a vital Christian component of the Hezbollah-led March 8 Coalition.
• After Taif, the prime minister became responsible to parliament, rather than the presidency, while the ratio of Christian-Muslim representation in the chamber of deputies was set at 50:50.
• Aoun refused to attend the Taif talks, insisting from his French exile that he was the legitimate prime minister of Lebanon.
• He lobbied extensively against Syrian hegemony, famously pushing for UNSCR 1559, which called for the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon.
Early parliamentary elections
Both Frangieh and Gaegea are pushing for early parliamentary elections, hoping that due to Basil’s diminishing popularity, the FPM will fail at securing the same number of seats that it currently enjoys in Parliament. Christian seats lost by FPM would immediately be picked up by Marada, the Lebanese Forces, and other Christian parties like the Lebanese Phalange of former President Amin Gemayel.
Aoun at the time was a vocal opponent of the Syrian presence in Lebanon and the optics of him extending his mandate would look terrible. Indeed, a more common refrain heard today in Lebanon is that Aoun should resign and not stay in office until the end of his term.
Marada currently holds no seats in parliament while the Phalange have small representation of 3 MPs. The LF originally had 14 seats in the Chamber but many of their parliamentarians resigned last August, after the Beirut port explosion. With a far smaller parliamentary bloc, the FPM would be unable to vote for extending Aoun’s mandate next year, or to making Basil president.
Milestones
• The Maronites trace their origins to St. Maron, or Maro (Arabic: Mārūn), a Syrian hermit of the late 4th and early 5th centuries, and St. John Maron, or Joannes Maro (Arabic: Yūḥannā Mārūn), patriarch of Antioch in 685–707, under whose leadership the invading Byzantine armies of Justinian II were routed in 684, making the Maronites a fully-independent people.
[Source: Britannica]
Diminishing popularity
Basil’s popularity dropped to comically low levels in late 2019, when young Lebanese took to the streets, cussing him and calling for his removal from the Foreign Ministry, in what came to be known as the October Revolution. They accused him of corruption, misuse of public office, nepotism, and autocracy.
Basil not only opposes early elections, fearing the fate of his current parliamentary bloc, but is even toying with the idea of extending this parliament’s tenure so that his 29 MPS are all in their seats when it is time to vote for a new president in October 2022.
Basil insists on his presidential bid, relying on Hezbollah to bring him to Baabda Palace, just like they did with Aoun back five years ago. Hezbollah, however, has little trust in Gibran Basil, seeing him as a manipulator and unrealisable ally.
They were forced to cuddle up to him, nevertheless after US sanctions were slapped on Basil last year. A joint FPM-Hezbollah committee was created to revisit the Mar Mikhail Agreement that brought Aoun to power, supposedly, to tailor its clauses to Basil’s ambitions.
That committee was established during the Christmas holidays and was supposed to hold its first meting in early January. Since then, however, Hezbollah has repeatedly avoided its convening, citing more pressing issues that the country was facing, like the rapid spread of Covid-19.
Remote chances
Chances of Aoun’s success at extension are “very difficult” said Nicholas Blanford a Beirut-based senior fellow with The Atlantic Council in Washington. Speaking to Gulf News, he added that such a move will remind many Lebanese of the era of Syrian dominance in Lebanon between 1990 and 2005 when the mandates of Presidents Elias Hrawi and Emile Lahhoud were extended by three years each.
“Aoun at the time was a vocal opponent of the Syrian presence in Lebanon and the optics of him extending his mandate would look terrible. Indeed, a more common refrain heard today in Lebanon is that Aoun should resign and not stay in office until the end of his term.”
