All you need to know about the Iran- Israel conflict — and what’s next

Dubai: Israel’s blistering attack with warplanes and drones against Iran’s nuclear and military structure has sparked an open conflict between the two long-time foes that threatens to spiral into a wider, more dangerous regional war.

Since Friday, Israeli strikes have killed hundreds of people in Iran, including top generals and scientists but also civilians. Iran has retaliated by launching hundreds of drones and missiles against Israel, some of which have penetrated Israel’s vaunted aerial defence system, killing two dozen people so far.

However, according to Washington-based group Human Rights Activists, the Israeli strikes on Iran have killed over 639 people and injured 1,329 others. The fatalities include 263 civilians and 154 military personnel. The Iranian government has put the death toll at 224 and 1,277 injuries.

The region is already on edge as Israel seeks to annihilate the Hamas militant group, an Iranian ally, in the Gaza Strip, where war still rages after Hamas’ October 7, 2023 attack on southern Israel.

Amid the conflict, President His Highness Shaikh Mohamed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan has been leading intensive diplomatic efforts aimed at de-escalating tensions and preventing the spread of the conflict.

Through robust diplomatic engagement, Shaikh Mohamed seeks to promote dialogue and reject violence, reinforcing the UAE’s long-standing role as a stabilising force in the region through diplomacy.

The President held a telephone call on Tuesday with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The two leaders discussed efforts being made to contain the situation and put an end to the escalation, stressing the importance of exercising restraint and pursuing dialogue to avoid further threats to security and stability. They underscored their support for all efforts aimed at achieving a solution through diplomatic means.

Also on Tuesday, Shaikh Mohamed held a telephone call with Dr Masoud Pezeshkian, President of Iran, during which they discussed the latest developments and their grave implications for regional peace and security. Shaikh Mohamed expressed the UAE’s solidarity with Iran and its people during these challenging times.

Danny Citrinowicz of the Atlantic Council says Israel saw a rare opportunity: Iran’s regional proxies were weakening, its air defences were down and intelligence showed renewed nuclear weapons activity. With a green light from US President Donald Trump, Israel moved swiftly.

No. The goal was not total destruction but significant delay. Israel targeted key sites like Natanz and nuclear scientists, which could set Iran back by a year. However, the Fordow facility — crucial for full-scale uranium enrichment — remains intact.

Without US support to hit Fordow, Iran’s nuclear programme cannot be fully halted. Ironically, Israel’s attack could provoke Iran to accelerate its nuclear ambitions, although current risks may deter immediate action, according to analyst Raz Zimmt.

Only Iran’s top nuclear scientists and leadership know for sure. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) recently found Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations, with 400kg of uranium enriched to 60 per cent — far beyond civilian needs.

However, that doesn’t confirm a bomb is being built. While Israel claims Iran is closer than ever, US intelligence, including testimony from Tulsi Gabbard, suggests otherwise. Iran continues to insist its programme is peaceful.

Yes, but so far, none have materialised. The IAEA confirmed no elevated radiation at Natanz or Esfahan, despite Israeli strikes damaging multiple buildings, including a uranium conversion site. Still, any attacks on nuclear facilities carry the risk of radioactive leaks and long-term environmental fallout.

The IAEA condemned attacks on nuclear sites, reaffirming that such actions violate international law and the UN Charter. Whether or not Iran’s facilities are entirely peaceful, the IAEA warned that striking nuclear sites sets a dangerous precedent that could escalate future conflicts.

They agree on goals — stopping Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, weakening Hezbollah, and removing Hamas from Gaza — but differ on methods. Trump prefers avoiding a new war, portraying himself as a peace-through-strength leader. Netanyahu believes the time for confrontation is now. Both leaders feel destined to lead in this crisis and are willing to double down, even amid divided public opinion, according to expert Thomas Warrick.

It’s possible. The US has 40,000–50,000 troops stationed at 19 sites in the region, including bases in Bahrain and Cyprus. Any US escalation would increase the risk to its assets, depending on how directly it intervenes, warns Mikey Kay of the BBC.

Israel has deployed F-35I, F-15I, and F-16 jets using bunker-busting GBU-28s, Rampage missiles, and precision-guided bombs. Iran has retaliated with hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones. The Revolutionary Guard claimed to use Fattah hypersonic missiles, though Israel hasn’t confirmed this. Hypersonics fly above Mach 5 and challenge traditional missile defence systems.

This narrow waterway is vital to global oil exports — 20 per cent of the world’s seaborne crude passes through it. It borders Iranian territory and is vulnerable to disruption. Though Iran could temporarily block the strait with ships or shore-launched missiles, experts like Ellen R. Wald believe it’s unlikely. Iran still relies heavily on oil exports to fund operations and would be hurting itself by closing the strait.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei holds the ultimate power in Iran. Despite his authority, support is fragmented. Iran has experienced mass protests, especially by women, over repression and lack of freedoms. Though many Iranians oppose the regime, it still maintains loyalty within the military and among hardliners.

Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said Thursday that Khamenei “cannot continue to exist.”

Katz spoke after the latest wave of Iranian missiles struck a hospital and wounded at least 40 people.

“A dictator like Khamenei, who heads a country like Iran and has made the destruction of Israel his mission, cannot continue to exist,” Katz said. “The IDF has been instructed and knows that in order to achieve all of its goals, this man absolutely should not continue to exist.”

US officials said this week that President Donald Trump had vetoed an Israeli plan to kill Khamenei. Trump later said there were no plans to kill him “at least not for now.”

There’s no clear successor. Exiled crown prince Reza Pahlavi has support inside and outside Iran, but he also has opponents. Reformists don’t favor a return to monarchy. A power vacuum could emerge if the regime falls, making the situation unpredictable, notes BBC’s Nafiseh Kohnavard.

Despite deep resentment toward the regime, the Israeli strikes have created a “rally-around-the-flag” effect. Civilians in Tehran are fleeing, shops and the Grand Bazaar are closed, and metro stations are open round the clock as shelters. While government credibility is low, the external threat has momentarily unified the public. That said, prolonged conflict could erode the regime’s internal control over time.

Most Israelis back the government’s military campaign, viewing it as essential to stopping Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Despite civilian casualties, public sentiment favours the strikes and credits Netanyahu’s administration for decisive action.

Israel vows to keep striking Iranian military, nuclear, and government sites, including infrastructure in Tehran. Netanyahu hasn’t ruled out regime change, claiming “the Iran regime is very weak.”

Meanwhile, Iran feels pressure to retaliate to preserve credibility, especially with a restive population. Trump remains a wildcard — he could either let the conflict play out or push for a diplomatic off-ramp. But even if the fighting pauses, the long-term threat of Iranian nuclear advancement will keep this conflict central to Trump’s Middle East agenda, notes analyst Alan Pino.