Selecting security chief a pressing issue

Riyadh: Saudi Arabia is under pressure to quickly choose a replacement for the late Crown Prince Nayef Bin Abdul Aziz, who was heir to the kingdom’s throne and its security chief, as it confronts rivalries and turmoil across the Middle East.

While defence minister Prince Salman appears highly likely to be appointed crown prince, possibly when the formal condolence period ends tonight, it is not clear who will replace Nayef as interior minister.

Nayef, who died on Saturday, oversaw security for 37 years and built a formidable apparatus that crushed Al Qaida inside the kingdom and remains a vital element of the global struggle to foil militants.

His tough legacy, involving thousands of arrests of suspected militants, an intelligence network that infiltrated Islamist cells, and an intolerant approach to political dissenters, remains intact but will need a new chief.

“My assumption would be that whoever is given the official job as minister of interior, the division of responsibilities in terms of counter-terrorism and broader internal security would continue as is,” said Neil Partrick, a Gulf security expert at the London School of Economics.

Two possible candidates for the security post are Nayef’s brother Prince Ahmad, a veteran deputy interior minister who handles broader security issues including policing, and his son, Prince Mohammad Bin Nayef, who now handles counter terrorism.

The new crown prince will eventually succeed to power having to deal with significant domestic and external challenges, including a substantial security file.

The kingdom’s new crown prince will also face a number of other challenges including long-term joblessness.

“My sense is that there will not be any profound changes. Continuity will be the overriding theme,” said Asaad Al Shamlan, a political science professor in Riyadh.

Many analysts expect it to be Prince Salman, 76, a half-brother of the 89-year-old Abdullah and a full brother of Nayef,

Salman would be likely to continue with cautious social and economic reforms, analysts said.

“The thing that Salman’s going to have to do is try and get some influence over some of the religious establishment in the country,” said Michael Stephens, researcher at the Qatar-based Royal United Services Institute.

“He’s going to have to start commenting on regional security issues as well as foreign policy initiatives”.