Five things to look out for as Xi meets Trump

Diplomatic styles will clash on Thursday when US President Donald Trump meets Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea, to seek a trade deal between the world's two largest economies.

Trump has hyped up the chances of an agreement, while Xi has been characteristically cagey on those prospects. 

Here's what to expect when the leaders meet for the first time since 2019, in Busan:

Real estate mogul Trump has for weeks played up the chances of a grand deal with Xi, but he will face off with a lifelong Communist Party bureaucrat.

"Trump is personal and improvisational. Xi is the opposite," said Ryan Hass, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. 

"Trump relishes making deals. Xi concentrates on advancing long-term strategy," he said, adding "neither leader sees value for himself or his country in an unsuccessful meeting". 

The US president has consistently touted his personal connection with Xi, calling him a "friend" whom he "respects".

Xi has been less effusive but spent time with Trump at his Mar-a-Lago resort in 2017 -- where he praised Trump's granddaughter's Chinese -- and hosted the US president for a state visit to Beijing the same year. 

Rebuilding their personal rapport could prove critical in stabilising combustible ties between the countries.

Their relationship "is probably the best thing going in US-China relations right now", according to Daniel Kritenbrink, the former top US diplomat for East Asia.

Relations have soured in the six years since Xi and Trump last met, with deep ruptures on trade, technology, and Taiwan.

While Trump said on Wednesday he expects a "great meeting" with his Chinese counterpart, stabilisation is likely to be the top priority, according to Kritenbrink.

Shao Yuqun, a senior research fellow at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, said the meeting is unlikely to be groundbreaking "due to the many structural problems in the bilateral relationship".

Even if Trump and Xi appear all smiles in South Korea, "it is very likely that the bilateral relationship will further deteriorate after the summit", she said at a recent event on China-US relations in Shanghai.

Their last meeting in 2019 ended with a tentative trade truce, but the agreement quickly unravelled when Covid-19 rocked the global economy.

What began in Trump's first term as US gripes over bilateral trade imbalances has morphed into a broad economic and strategic showdown.

Trump has said he wants China to buy more US soybeans after the country halted all purchases, which totalled $12.6 billion in 2024.

Securing US access to Chinese rare earth minerals is a top priority, as China's export controls on the critical elements could throttle US technology and military sectors.

Eyes will also be on the expected lowering of Trump's fentanyl-based tariffs, any alleviation of US restrictions on high-end semiconductor exports, the transfer of TikTok to US ownership, and removing the port fees each side has levied on the other's ships.

But Taiwan remains the "most important" issue in the relationship, according to Wu Xinbo at Fudan University's Institute of International Studies.

The self-ruled island, claimed by China and reliant on arms sales from the US for its defence, is "the only issue that will bring our two countries to a head-on conflict", Wu said.

Trump did not rule out Taiwan coming up in talks, saying Xi "might want to talk about it".

Details of the format for the meeting have been scant.

While Trump relishes engaging with the press and adlibbing his way through speeches, Xi favours formal meetings and delivering scripted remarks at major events. 

Xi held a joint press conference with Trump in 2017.

It is unclear whether the leaders will shake hands in front of the cameras, and even the venue for their meeting has not been officially confirmed.

Wherever they meet, their delegations will differ significantly from 2019.

China's chief negotiator then, Liu He, has retired, while Trump's team is almost entirely changed from his first term.

However, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a China hawk sanctioned by Beijing in 2020 for his criticism of the country, is likely to be in the room.