The Vatican in focus: Who will lead after Pope Francis?

Pope Francis has died at the age of 88 at his residence in the Vatican's Casa Santa Marta. The leader of the Roman Catholic Church had been suffering from respiratory ailments and pneumonia. The focus now turns to who will succeed him as the spiritual head of the Roman Catholics. Here's a look at the process and front runners.

The corridors of the Vatican are abuzz with whispered discussions, and eyes are turning to the College of Cardinals, where the next leader of 1.3 billion Catholics may already be among them.

The Vatican stands at a crossroads, grappling with an inevitable question: Who will lead the Catholic Church next?

The process of selecting a new pope is steeped in tradition and secrecy. Upon the death or resignation of a pontiff, the Vatican convenes a papal conclave.

This is where 138 of the 252 cardinals will gather in the Sistine Chapel to elect what the Church sees as the successor of Peter.

As of January 22, 2025, the conclave’s rules remain unchanged: up to four rounds of voting per day, with a candidate needing a two-thirds majority to claim the throne of St. Peter.

Historically, this process unfolds over 15 to 20 tense days, as black or white smoke signals from the chapel roof inform the world of the Church’s most pivotal decision.

No clear frontrunner has emerged. But certain high-profile cardinals have already been whispered as contenders. Some were documented in Edward Pentin’s book, The Next Pope: The Leading Cardinal Candidates.

These are some of the prominent cardinals mentioned as potential candidates for the papacy:

Parolin spent 30 years in the Holy See’s diplomatic service, working in Nigeria, Mexico, and Venezuela. He speaks Italian, fluent English and French, and near-native Spanish. Parolin, known for his diplomatic acumen, is considered a moderate, and is likely to continue Pope Francis' policies. A cardinal since February 2014, Parolin emphasises the importance of dialogue. In an interview with Italian newspaper L’Eco di Bergamo, Perolin was quoted as saying: “Everyone can contribute to peace, but solutions must never be pursued through unilateral impositions that risk trampling on the rights of entire peoples, otherwise, there will never be a just and lasting peace.”

As the President of the Symposium of Episcopal Conferences of Africa and Madagascar, Cardinal Besungu is recognised for his conservative stance on church doctrines. He has been vocal in his opposition to progressive changes within the Church. He underscores the need to uphold traditional values in modern times. He was quoted as saying: "Synodality is a reflection on a new way of being Church...a means of listening more and walking together".

A trained medical doctor, Cardinal Wim Eijk is noted for his strong conservative views, particularly regarding issues like civil remarriage and divorce. He has expressed concerns about the Church's direction under more liberal leadership. Eijk advocates for a return to traditional teachings and practices. In an interview published on Lifesite, Cardinal Eijk was quoted as saying: “It is not only believers who are entitled to the truth, but all people.” 

Serving as the Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest, Cardinal Erdo is a prominent conservative voice within the Church. He opposes allowing divorced and remarried Catholics to receive Holy Communion, emphasising adherence to established doctrines. Erdo believes in maintaining the sanctity of traditional sacraments. In an interview with Vatican News, Cardinal Erdo said: "Faith is the most important thing in life, and therefore, serving the faith of others, passing on the faith, teaching the faith, and especially ministering at the liturgy, are the greatest things in life..."

Often referred to as the "Asian Francis", Tagle is known for his progressive views and emphasis on inclusivity. He has served as the Prefect of the Congregation for the Evangelisation of Peoples since December 2019. Tagle is fluent in English, Italian and Tagalog languages, and is proficient in reading Spanish, French, Korean and Latin. In his teachings, he highlights the Church's role in embracing marginalised communities. If elected pope, he could be the first Chinese-Filipino to lead the Church. He has been quoted as saying: “Mercy is making every person feel and experience the fact that no one is a hopeless case.”

As the President of the Symposium of Episcopal Conferences of Africa and Madagascar, Ambongo Besungu is recognized for his conservative stance on church doctrines. He has been vocal in his opposition to progressive changes within the Church. He underscores the need to uphold traditional values in modern times.

A staunch traditionalist, Cardinal Burke has been a vocal critic of Pope Francis' liberal tendencies. He advocates for a return to traditional Catholic teachings on marriage, the Eucharist, and family issues. Burke emphasises the importance of unwavering adherence to established doctrines. He was quoted as saying: “We are citizens of our country, and our duty to society is to witness to the moral law, which is the prerequisite for peace in our life together.”

Known for his criticism of liturgical reforms, Cardinal Sarah is a strong proponent of traditional Catholic teachings. He has been a vocal advocate for preserving the Latin Mass. Cardinal Sarah served as archbishop under the Marxist dictatorship of Sékou Touré, who named Sarah to his death-list. Interviews with Cardinal Sarah were published in a trilogy of books: Good or Nothing, The Power of Silence, The Day is Now Far Spent. He stresses the need for spiritual depth and reverence in worship, and was quoted as saying: “Man must make a choice: God or nothing, silence or noise. Prayer consists of listening to God speak silently within us.” 

As an influential figure within Pope Francis' Vatican, Cardinal Zuppi is seen as a moderate who could continue the current pontiff's agenda. He focuses on inclusivity and social justice, of "walking together, to listen to everyone's suffering”, aiming to bridge gaps within the Church and society. Zuppi, president of Italian Bishops' Conference, believes in a Church that actively engages with and supports all members of society. Quote: “So we can ask ourselves: am I free? Or do I let myself be imprisoned by the myths of money, power and success, sacrificing my serenity and peace, and that of others, to these things? In the places where I live and work, do I spread the fresh air of freedom, sincerity and spontaneity?”

He has served as chancellor of the Pontifical Academies of Sciences since 2022. Formerly the President of the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace, Turkson is known for his work on social justice issues and his moderate views and has been involved in various initiatives addressing global inequality and environmental concerns. He also served as prefect of the Dicastery Dicastery for the Promotion of Integral Human Development from 2017 to 2021. Turkson advocates for a Church that is proactive in addressing societal challenges. Quote: "Peace is a fruit of justice. God's children all belong together. None are set aside, none should live on the periphery and none are excluded".

Having served as the Prefect of the Congregation for Bishops, Cardinal Ouellet is recognised for his theological expertise and experience within the Vatican. He is considered a potential candidate who could appeal to both conservative and moderate factions within the Church. Ouellet emphasises unity and continuity within Church leadership. Quote: "If anyone is afraid, it means he does not have sufficient faith...The setting for interpreting Holy Scripture is not the library or the schoolroom, it is the temple... With mere theological research, God cannot be known as He is. Love, alone, reaches Him."