London: Britain would remain on a ‘business as usual' footing in the event of a global flu outbreak with no closing of borders, ban on mass gatherings or restrictions on public transport under the new national plan for dealing with a pandemic.

There would also be no widespread school closures or public use of anti-virals to prevent the disease under the strategy published by the four UK health departments yesterday.

Although the NHS is being told to prepare for an extra 210,000 to 315,000 deaths over a 15-week period in a pandemic, the updated plan demands a ‘proportionate' response to an emergency and for the first time distinguishes between low, moderate and high-impact measures depending on the severity and spread of the virus.

Ministers appear determined to show what they regard as more measured, but not complacent, planning assumptions after the UK escaped lightly from scares over H5N1 bird flu in 1997 and 2003 and the first pandemic of the 21st century, the spread of H1NI swine flu in 2009.

Do-it-yourself

In the UK, most people who caught H1N1 developed relatively mild illnesses. Its impact also varied, with London, the West Midlands and Glagow experiencing extreme pressures on local health services before parts of the northwest of England and Northern Ireland had any cases. The same do-it-yourself health measures undertaken during seasonal flu outbreaks can reduce the spread of infection and treat mild to moderate symptoms, says the document. These include proper washing of hands, staying at home, keeping warm, drinking plenty of fluids and using over the counter cold and flu medicines.

Nevertheless, identifying the exact strain of virus could be problematic and take time, with production of specific vaccines taking four to six months. Estimating the potential economic impact is also difficult, given the lack of specific advance information.

But if 50 per cent of employees were absent from work for an average of 1.5 weeks, there might be a £28 billion (Dh163.5 billion) loss in GDP.

In a widespread and severe pandemic, between 15 to 20 per cent of staff could be absent on any given day. Additional absences could be caused by staff taking time off to care for sick dependants or looking after children if schools were closed. Effective pre-planning could mitigate that.

Health care workers would get face masks and respirators to treat sick patients, but such equipment would not be issued to the public, who might not use them properly, change them regularly or dispose of them properly.

Closing airports, ports and international rail terminals would only delay, not stop, the arrival of a pandemic while causing problems for food, medical and other supplies. Thermal screening of passengers would also be a waste of time, money and staff. Restricting transport and large events would also be avoided.