Livingstone set for victory in mayoral election - survey

Ken Livingstone is set for victory in the mayoral election with only a week remaining until polling day, according to a new survey.

He would comfortably defeat Conservative rival Steve Norris in a run-off, according to the Populus poll in The Times.

It claims that once first and second preference votes are counted for both candidates, Labour's Livingstone would be on 58 per cent and Norris on 42 per cent – the same result as the 2000 mayoral race.

But the Liberal Democrats publish the results of a separate opinion poll which suggests that their candidate Simon Hughes has a real chance of victory if he can leapfrog Norris into second place.

According to the YouGov research seen by the Evening Standard, there would be only a one per cent gap between Hughes and Livingstone if voters knew they would be the top two candidates. Livingstone would be on 50.7 per cent, with Hughes on 49.3.

By comparison, if Norris were left to fight it out with the Mayor, a 10 per cent gap would develop once all second preferences were counted, guaranteeing Livingstone a second four-year term.

Lib-Dem campaigns chief Lord Rennard said: "It is clear Ken Livingstone will win if Steve Norris clings on to second place, but he will lose if Simon Hughes becomes his main challenger."

Simon Hughes has one week in which to overtake Steve Norris and I believe that he can do it. Anyone who wants a change of Mayor and someone who puts London above self-promotion can only vote for Simon Hughes."

Under the complex voting system, if no candidate gets more than 50 per cent of first preference votes, then all but the top two candidates are eliminated, with any second preference votes cast for the front runners being reallocated. The winner is the candidate with most first and second preference votes combined.

According to Populus, only three in five voters will cast their second preferences – but Hughes can expect to take the largest slice, some 49 per cent. By comparison, Livingstone would only gain 21 per cent of second preference votes. Also, four fifths of Norris's second preference votes would transfer to Hughes were the Tory to be eliminated.

The polls come as Norris was put under pressure in a TV debate over his chairmanship of rail contractor Jarvis, linked to the Potters Bar crash.

GAUGING GAP

Distance between candidates shrinking

• The YouGov poll, which questioned 945 London voters over the weekend, did not measure the gap in support between the Lib-Dems and Tories.

• But the Populus poll of 1,000 Londoners clearly indicated that Mr Norris was some distance ahead of Mr Hughes on first preference votes.

• It placed the Tory on 29 per cent and the Lib-Dem on 20 per cent. Livingstone was on 42 per cent.

If the gap closes before polling, second preferences will become crucial.

© Evening Standard