Global fertility crisis: Why millions are having fewer children than they want

Global fertility rates are falling at an unprecedented pace, raising alarms about the economic and social fabric of societies worldwide.

According to a new State of World Population report from the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), nearly one in five people across 14 nations now expect to remain childless or have fewer children than they’d prefer — despite a clear desire for larger families 

The UNFPA survey, involving 14,000 respondents from developed and developing nations such as the US, Germany, Nigeria, and Thailand, reveals a worrying mismatch: while most people idealise having two or three children, structural barriers are pushing fertility well below that threshold.

Globally, fertility rates have plummeted from around five children per woman in 1950 to just 2.3 today, with projections indicating a further decline — perhaps dipping below the replacement level of approximately 2.1 by century’s end. 

The UNFPA report identifies key blockers: the rising cost of living, job instability, unaffordable housing, unequal gender roles at home, stress about global crises like climate change, and a lack of suitable partners.

Financial concerns top the list: 39% of survey participants say economic constraints have limited their ability to have the desired number of children, while 21% cite insecurity in employment and 19% point to housing issues.

Gender inequality compounds the problem. Women, already penalised in the workplace, often bear most of the child-rearing burden — a dynamic that reinforces the so‑called “motherhood penalty”.

Without support systems like paid parental leave or shared caregiving responsibilities, many women delay or forgo motherhood for economic reasons.

This phenomenon isn’t isolated to one country. South Korea has recorded one of the lowest fertility rates on record — just 0.7 births per woman in 2023 — while Japan, Italy, and several European nations are similarly affected. Even China, after ending its one‑child policy, struggles to reverse deep cultural and economic shifts toward smaller families.

Meanwhile, parts of sub‑Saharan Africa remain outliers, where fertility still exceeds replacement levels, but the rate of decline is gradually accelerating.

UNFPA Executive Director Natalia Kanem emphasises that the issue is not a lack of desire for children, but a lack of meaningful choices. She advocates effective rather than coercive policy responses, including paid family leave, affordable fertility care, accessible contraception, and equitable gender norms. The report warns that simplistic pro‑birth incentives — cash bonuses or bans on contraception — are ineffective and may backfire.

The consequences of continued low fertility are profound: ageing populations, growing dependency ratios, labour shortages, strained pension systems, and slower economic growth. Some experts argue that immigration might help offset population ageing, but it’s not a cure for deeply rooted structural issues.

The UN report calls for a shift in narrative — from blaming individuals for declining birth rates to addressing the social and economic realities that hinder reproductive choices. Only by investing in supportive policies and expanding genuine opportunities can nations hope to align desired family size with actual births — and stabilise global demographics.