Andy Burnham’s victory puts UK PM Starmer on notice

A by-election in a little-known corner of northwest England has suddenly become the most important story in British politics.

Andy Burnham’s emphatic victory in Makerfield has returned Labour’s popular politician to Parliament and intensified questions about the future of Prime Minister Keir Starmer. What might otherwise have been a routine local contest is now being viewed as the opening move in a potential battle for the leadership of the governing Labour Party — and, ultimately, the keys to 10 Downing Street.

Burnham’s win does not make him prime minister. But it removes the biggest obstacle that stood in his way. Under Labour Party rules, leadership candidates must be sitting MPs. With that hurdle now cleared, attention across Westminster has shifted to a question that seemed improbable only months ago: could Britain soon be preparing for another change of prime minister?

The answer matters not just for Labour, but for the country. A leadership contest in the governing party could reshape Britain’s political direction at a time when Labour is struggling in opinion polls, facing a growing challenge from Nigel Farage’s Reform UK and trying to convince voters it can deliver on the promises that swept it to power in 2024.

The by-election was triggered when Labour MP Josh Simons stepped down, allowing Burnham to contest the seat and return to Parliament.

That move was significant because under Labour Party rules, only sitting MPs can stand for the party leadership. Burnham, despite being one of Labour’s most recognisable figures, could not challenge Starmer while serving solely as mayor of Greater Manchester.

His victory changes that immediately.

Burnham won almost 55 per cent of the vote and defeated Reform UK’s candidate by more than 9,000 votes, according to AFP and AP. In his victory speech, he described the result as potentially “a turning point” for Britain and warned Labour that it faced a “final chance to change.”

The result also carried symbolic importance because Makerfield is exactly the kind of working-class constituency Labour fears losing to Reform UK. Burnham’s ability to defeat Reform there strengthens his argument that he is better placed than Starmer to reconnect with voters drifting away from Labour.

Burnham, 56, is one of the best-known figures in modern Labour politics.

He served as a Labour MP from 2001 until 2017 and held several senior cabinet positions during previous Labour governments. Since 2017, he has been mayor of Greater Manchester, winning three consecutive terms and overseeing major regeneration projects in one of Britain’s largest urban regions.

Known for his outspoken style and strong regional identity, Burnham has frequently criticised Labour’s London-centric politics and has advocated greater powers for England’s regions.

His popularity has earned him the nickname “King of the North”. Polling cited by AFP suggests he is currently Labour’s most popular politician and would perform strongly among party members in any leadership contest.

Burnham belongs to Labour’s soft-left tradition and has often positioned himself as a more grassroots alternative to Starmer’s centrist approach.

Starmer led Labour to a landslide victory in the 2024 general election. But since then, his popularity has fallen sharply.

The government has struggled to generate economic growth, address cost-of-living concerns and improve public services. A series of policy reversals and internal disputes have further damaged confidence in his leadership.

Labour’s poor showing in recent local elections intensified calls for change. Several senior figures have publicly questioned Starmer’s future, while opinion polls increasingly show Reform UK leading nationally.

Although Starmer insists he will fight any leadership challenge, many Labour MPs are worried that the party could be heading towards electoral disaster if current trends continue.

The immediate next step is straightforward.

Burnham is expected to be sworn in as an MP when Parliament sits next week. Once that happens, he becomes eligible to contest Labour’s leadership.

Under party rules, a challenger needs support from at least one-fifth of Labour MPs to trigger a leadership contest. With Labour holding more than 400 seats, that threshold currently stands at 81 MPs.

Most observers believe Burnham would have little difficulty securing the required nominations if enough MPs decide Starmer’s position is untenable.

Attention is therefore likely to shift quickly to private discussions between Burnham, Starmer and senior Labour figures about the party’s future direction.

Yes.

Britain’s parliamentary system allows governing parties to replace their leaders between general elections. If Labour chooses a new leader while remaining in government, that person automatically becomes prime minister.

There would be no requirement for a national election.

That means Burnham could potentially move directly from mayor of Greater Manchester to 10 Downing Street if he won a Labour leadership contest.

However, several hurdles remain.

Starmer has repeatedly said he does not intend to resign. Other potential contenders, including former health secretary Wes Streeting, could also enter the race. Some analysts caution that Burnham’s by-election victory, while impressive, does not automatically guarantee Labour’s national fortunes would improve.

Polling expert John Curtice told the BBC that it would be wrong to assume Burnham’s success in Makerfield would produce a dramatic nationwide recovery for Labour.

For now, Burnham’s victory has changed the conversation inside British politics.

What began as a by-election in a constituency of roughly 77,000 voters has become a pivotal moment for the governing party.

The key question is no longer whether Burnham can challenge Starmer.

It is whether Labour concludes that only Burnham can save the party from a growing threat posed by Reform UK — and whether Starmer chooses to fight for survival or negotiate what some allies describe as an “orderly and managed transition” of power.

The answer could determine not only Labour’s future but also who occupies 10 Downing Street in the months ahead.

- with inputs from AFP and AP