A man in the nick of time

Nicholas Sarkozy won an election, lost a wife and has been dealing ever since with trouble and strife.

Elected on a reform mandate, the strikes that shut down public transport were the last movement by unions who know that their perks are drawing to an end.

They can still pack a punch but have lost the ability to deliver a knock-out blow. But Sarkozy is not Margaret Thatcher. He believes in, and advocates, statist policies.

Market competition is not on his agenda. There is nothing wrong with French production at least on one level. Monsieur for monsieur, the French worker is more productive than their counterpart in the US or Britain.

The trouble is they work far fewer hours per week than the American or British and enjoy the retiring comforts of their labours at an age when workers in other countries are at the peak of their productive capabilities.

The strikers' grievances are two-fold. They argue that their salaries are so low that they cannot make ends meet. The issue of “purchasing power'' - low salaries that cannot match the rising cost of living - is currently the key concern of the French public.

Sarkozy promised to kick-start the struggling economy, but the public complain that they have yet to see an improvement in their purses. Public sector workers are also protesting against one of Sarkozy's key reforms - his “civil service revolution'' to cut the unwieldy state bureaucracy and public administration, the costliest in Europe.

Around 5.2 million people work in the public sector, one fifth of the French workforce. Sarkozy has pledged to cut the numbers, starting by not replacing one in three who retire in 2008.

Up to 23,000 jobs go next year, and at least 11,000 in education. In foreign policy, a subject Sarkozy does not devote much time to, the US and Europe will both take a back seat.

He seeks closer ties with Washington (not hard after Jacques Chirac) but is deeply mistrustful of European interference and enlargement which he believes, with good reason, would dilute French influence.

The new states in the EU and those wanting to join are contaminated he believes with ‘'Anglo Saxon traits''.

But in reality he has little interest in diplomacy. Reform tops his agenda and foreign policy would be a distraction. France is enduring a culture clash.

It will almost certainly be more aggressive in its dealings with the EU. Sarkozy can hardly ask his workforce to tighten their belts and then allow more EU competition to threaten French workers. And if Sarkozy should seek a more dominant role in world affairs, to offset negative opinion polls, it will be with Europe that he picks his arguments, not unlike Thatcher.

But a closer, cosier alliance with the US - allowing Sarkozy a free hand at home while giving Washington carte blanche to speak in France's name on issues such as Iran - is a racing certainty in the years ahead.

The axis with Berlin, will play less significantly. There already has been a profound change, almost unnoticed. In 2003, Chirac represented Germany at an EU summit.

The thought of Sarkozy doing something similar would strike most Germans and French as ridiculous. Their chancellor, Angela Merkel, has told Sarkozy to stop kissing her in public when they greet each other. In more ways than one, the kissing between the two countries has to stop.

Sarkozy seeks domestic bliss. He will be defined by the success or otherwise of labour reforms and must curtail the lifestyle of citizens living beyond their means.

A failure of nerve could see the radicalisation of French politics.

Two elections ago, the National Front leader was in a run-off for the presidency. If Sarkozy fails there will be a polarisation putting the centre under stress.