Conclave smoke signal: What time to expect

The countdown is on. The papal conclave, a centuries-old practice, is set to begin Wednesday (May 7, 2025) to select a successor to Pope Francis.

Will there be a new pope on Wednesday itself?

There are conflicting reports: some speculate it might be a "quick" conclave, while others say this conclave is one of the more unpredictable ones.

The last three conclaves (for Francis in 2013, Benedict XVI in 2005, and John Paul II in 1978) were completed within two to three days.

Here’s what we can expect in the hours, and possibly days ahead:

Communication blackout

At 4:30 PM in Rome, the order “Everyone out” will be heard, and the conclave opens. 

St. Peter’s Basilica is isolated. A communications blackout is imposed – no phones, no laptops, or electronic devices.

After the Mass at Saint Peter’s, where all the cardinals will gather, the cardinals will make a beeline to the Sistine Chapel, where they will be locked (“con clave”, with key) in what is speculated to be an intense deliberation.

At least two cardinals told local media in Rome it will be "over" by Friday (May 9).

Today, Wednesday (May 7), only one vote will take place.

If no pope is elected on the first round, four rounds of voting (two each in the morning and afternoon), will be held from tomorrow, Thursday (May 8).

Black smoke means no pope. White smoke means there’s a new pope. 

According to Vatican spokesperson Matteo Bruni, the telltale white smoke — a successful papal election — could rise from the Sistine Chapel chimney as early as 10:30 am or 5:30 pm on voting days.

There are four key smoke signal times each day of the conclave: two in the morning and two in the afternoon, coinciding with the rounds of voting by the cardinal electors. 

If the pope is elected in the first vote (in the morning) or the third vote (in the afternoon), the smoke may appear at 10:30 am or 5:30 pm local time in Rome (GMT + 2), respectively. 

These times would almost certainly signal white smoke, indicating a successful vote — since each session includes two ballots, and smoke produced before the second would signal a decision.

In contrast, smoke emerging around 12:00 noon or 7:00 pm could be either black or white, depending on whether the second ballot of the session produced a pope.

All cardinals (those under age 80) expected to take part in the conclave are now in Vatican City. 

They had been gathering, and were staying at the Domus Sanctae Marthae, the Vatican residence used during conclaves.

The conclave was supposed to start possibly earlier, but they gave each other that space to get to know one another and also talk to the elders — the cardinals over 80 — who cannot vote.

Do the cardinals know each other?

There are 133 cardinals expected to vote at this conclave. A hundred years ago, many cardinals were from Italy, so they all knew each other — drinking espresso together for years.

The late Pope Francis appointed many cardinals (he appointed 108 out of 133 voting cardinal), and from areas of the world that had never had cardinals before.

With many different perspectives coming in, so in many ways, they don’t know each other.

The retired cardinals (non-voting) are expected to play a shepherding role, to help guide the others through the process.