Philippines: Sara Duterte, Raffy Tulfo in dead heat in latest Puls Asia survey
Splits along regional, class divides emerge as Vice President and Senator tie in poll
Manila: If elections were held today, it will be a toss between Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte and Senator Raffy Tulfo, a new poll shows.
In a significant development, Tulfo and Duterte are shown to be statistically tied in a head-to-head presidential "preference test" conducted by Pulse Asia Research Inc.
That's according to results from the firm’s latest Ulat ng Bayan survey conducted in March 2026, and released on Tuesday (May 5, 2026).
In the matchup asked of respondents from Feb. 27 to March 2, Tulfo and Duterte each drew 46% when voters were asked who they would choose for president “if the May 2028 elections were held today.”
Pulse Asia survey
The figures came from rider questions commissioned by the office of Senator Juan Miguel Zubiri, Pulse Asia president Ronald D. Holmes confirmed.
A separate pairing in the same survey showed Duterte leading Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo, (former Vice President), 51% to 43%.
The survey interviewed 1,200 adults nationwide and has a margin of error of ±2.8 percentage points.
Regional splits
Tulfo and Duterte were tied at 42% each in the National Capital Region (NCR). Tulfo dominated in the rest of Luzon, 72% to Duterte’s 19%.
Duterte, however, posted commanding leads in the Visayas (64% to 32%) and in Mindanao (90% to 9%).
In the Duterte-Robredo pairing, Robredo narrowly led in Metro Manila, 42% to 41%, and led decisively in the rest of Luzon, 67% to 26%.
Duterte led in the Visayas, 67% to 31%, and overwhelmingly in Mindanao, 93% to 6%.
By social class
Among respondents in the ABC class, Tulfo led Duterte, 49% to 29%. Duterte held slim and solid advantages among Class D (48% to 47%) and Class E (63% to 32%), respectively.
In the Duterte-Robredo test, Robredo led among ABC voters, 63% to 30%. Duterte led in Class D, 53% to 41%, and Class E, 74% to 23%.
Zubiri: ‘Information is power’
In a statement, Zubiri confirmed commissioning the rider questions to track early public sentiment on potential presidential and vice-presidential contenders for 2028.
“In politics, information is power. One survey gives you a snapshot, but a series gives you a pattern,” Zubiri said, adding that regularly measuring public sentiment helps leaders understand the kind of leadership voters are seeking.
Pulse Asia said the questions were part of its regular nationwide survey fielded from Feb. 27 to March 2.
