Will Modi’s rise eclipse Pakistan-India relations?

Islamabad: There is a perceptible sense of foreboding in Pakistan’s capital after the BJP swept the national elections in India.

With ex-Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi now set to take the gaddi (seat of power) in New Delhi, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s government is braced to face what may be a new phase in the two states’ relations that will no doubt require deft handling. The mood is cautious with Islamabad waiting to see the indicators from New Delhi. There is also optimism among the business community that is hoping for improved trade and economic cooperation with India, despite Modi’s reputation of being stridently anti-Pakistan.

The same optimism though muted is also echoing in the corridors of power in Islamabad. Many feel that Sharif and Modi have the capability and will to improve trade and deepen economic cooperation. But the question is if this enthusiasm for improved economic ties and trade would translate into implementation since many unsettled issues remain.

Moreover, the political roadblocks pertaining key issues like Kashmir, Sir Creek, Siachin and water distribution as well as terrorism and tensions on the LoC impose restrictions by default on improvement in any sector whether it’s economic, social, cultural or sports.

The Special Advisor to the Prime Minister on Foreign Affairs and National Security, Sartaj Aziz in an exclusive interview for Gulf News had this to say: “The prime minister congratulated Narendra Modi on a historic victory since the BJP is the only single party in 30 years that achieved enough majority to form a government without requiring a coalition. Modi’s priorities are economic revival and development and the BJP agenda is peaceful relations with the neighbours. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has the same albeit he says that peace will come with good relations. So this is a good starting point for the two countries and their leaders.” Sartaj said, “We have two types of engagement with India — composite dialogue and backchannel dialogue. Issues like Kashmir, Sir Creek and Siachin are back channel issues, which we have been engaged with India on and there are front channel issues such as CBMs (confidence building measures) energy and trade cooperation. Let’s see how they respond. There has not been much of composite dialogue so far but trade and power purchasing and visa relaxation are issues we have been discussing with India. In the coming days we will be able to see what transpires at the diplomatic level, most probably in September at the United Nations General Assembly session where Prime Ministers Sharif and Modi will probably meet.” Speaking on the issue of how Pakistan-India relations will fare with Modi at the helm in India, Pakistan’s former ambassador to the United Kingdom and United States, Maleeha Lodhi said, “A new and untested political entity in Delhi will confront Islamabad with fresh diplomatic challenges. How relations between the two countries will evolve will depend, in large part, on how Modi’s avowed muscular nationalism translates into policy. Some Indian analysts are already predicting “a more muscular China and Pakistan policy”. But no one in the BJP has spelt out what that might mean in practice.

For Pakistan, distinguishing between what the BJP has said in the election and what it actually does in government will help to fashion a sound approach to deal with the new dispensation.

Lodhi said, “There are of course concerns in Pakistan that a Modi-led government might adopt a harder line on Kashmir. Persuading Delhi for talks that recognise Kashmir’s importance to the normalisation process will likely be more problematic under Modi than it was during Congress rule.”

On a more optimistic note, Lodhi said, “A new government in Delhi will offer an opportunity for a reset of relations. The issue Islamabad will have to address is how to deal with the new government if, as present indications suggest, Delhi refuses to revive the broad based ‘composite’ dialogue, cherry picks issues of priority to India and excludes Kashmir, Siachen and Sir Creek from the structured engagement between the two countries.”

The silver lining to the cloud, if Modi proves an astute statesman is the opportunity the mandate gives him to move forward in mending ties with Pakistan. The fact that Sharif invited him to visit Pakistan incidentally also raised criticism in some quarters. Previous invites to Manmohan Singh had been rejected by New Delhi over Pakistan’s alleged unwillingness to prosecute those accused of involvement in the 2008 Mumbai attack.

Sartaj speaking on Sharif’s invite to Modi however countered the criticism and said, “Prime Minister Sharif’s invite to Modi to visit Pakistan did not give a perception of weakness. Previous refusals by Manmohan Singh were linked to Bombay attacks but diplomatic initiatives keep occurring. The positive thing is that people also now want resumption of peace and better relations with India and the people to people contact has been there. So lets hope for the best we can.”

—The writer is a former Deputy Opinion Editor of Gulf News