Why are India and Pakistan tensions rising again - and what we know so far

Dubai: India and Pakistan exchanged heavy artillery along their contested frontier on Wednesday, after New Delhi launched deadly missile strikes on Pakistan, the worst violence between the neighbours in two decades.

Islamabad reported 26 civilians killed by the Indian strikes and firing along the border, while New Delhi said at least eight were killed by Pakistani shelling.

On April 22, a deadly attack in the Indian town of Pahalgam, in Jammu and Kashmir, killed 26 people, mostly Hindu tourists.

India called the attack a terror strike and vowed to respond. Two weeks later, it launched what it described as “targeted strikes” on alleged terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan-administered Kashmir and inside Pakistan.

The operation was named Operation Sindoor.

Pakistan has strongly condemned the Indian strikes, calling them “unprovoked aggression.”

Authorities claim that the attacks killed 26 civilians and that five Indian aircraft and a drone were shot down in response.

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif warned that the strikes “will not go unpunished.” Pakistan also conducted retaliatory fire across the Line of Control.

India’s Ministry of Defence said the operation was a “precise and restrained” effort to hold those responsible for the Pahalgam attack “accountable.”

Officials emphasised that the targets were known militant camps and not military or civilian infrastructure, and that the operation was non-escalatory in intent.

India has not named any particular group. However, police have claimed that at least two of the militants involved were Pakistani nationals. Pakistan denies any involvement and has rejected the accusation that it supports cross-border terrorism.

‘Sindoor’ refers to the sacred vermillion powder traditionally worn by married Hindu women. The symbolism may reflect the targeting of Hindu civilians in the April 22 attack, but India has not officially explained the naming.

India reported targeting nine locations, including areas in Pakistan-administered Kashmir and Bahawalpur in Pakistan’s Punjab province. Pakistan identified three locations hit: Muzaffarabad, Kotli, and Bahawalpur. India claims these were sites used for planning attacks; Pakistan disputes this and maintains civilians were hit.

This situation is reminiscent of past episodes, particularly:

2016: After the Uri attack, India launched “surgical strikes” across the LoC.

2019: Following the Pulwama bombing that killed 40 Indian troops, India conducted airstrikes on Balakot, prompting a dogfight in which a pilot was captured and later released by Pakistan.

Each time, the confrontations stopped short of full-scale war, with both countries eventually stepping back.

Since partition in 1947, Kashmir has been a contested region. Both India and Pakistan claim it in full but control parts of it.

Over the years, several wars and countless skirmishes have erupted over the territory.

The United Nations and world leaders have urged both nations to exercise maximum restraint. US President Donald Trump expressed hope that the violence would end quickly. With both countries possessing nuclear weapons, the international community remains cautious.

Analysts believe both sides may try to avoid a full-scale war, as in previous episodes.

However, the risk of miscalculation remains high, especially with nationalist pressures, public sentiment, and elections looming. Past behavior suggests that while tensions can spike, they often de-escalate through diplomatic channels.