Democrats focus on districts in wealthy suburbs where Trump is struggling

Leesburg, Virginia: Emboldened by Donald Trump’s struggles in the presidential race, Democrats in Congress are laying the groundwork to expand the list of House Republicans they will target for defeat as part of an effort to slash the Republicans’ 30-seat majority and even reclaim control if Trump falls further.

Trump’s unpopularity, which has already undermined the party’s grip on the Senate, now threatens to imperil Republican lawmakers even in traditionally conservative districts, according to strategists and officials in both parties involved in the fight for control of the House.

Democrats are particularly enticed by Trump’s dwindling support in affluent suburban areas — including those near Kansas City, Kansas; San Diego; Orlando, Florida; and Minneapolis — where Republicans ordinarily win with ease. Trump is so disliked among college-educated voters, especially white women, that he is at risk of losing by double digits in several districts that the 2012 Republican nominee, Mitt Romney, carried comfortably.

“It’s a remarkable situation. We, the Republicans, ought to be in a much stronger position in many suburban areas,” said Rep. Charlie Dent of Pennsylvania, whose district includes both suburbs and small cities. “Because of the nature of the nominee, it’s going to be a lot more competitive than it ought to be.”

Few Democrats say they believe their party is positioned, at this point, to take control of the House, where Republicans hold their largest majority in 87 years. Because of the way congressional districts are drawn, Republicans have a powerful structural advantage even in a punishing political environment.

But Republicans are also bracing to take more forceful steps if Trump continues to drag down their candidates. Multiple strategists involved in the campaign for control of Congress said Republican outside groups were prepared to run ads treating Trump as a certain-to-lose candidate and urging voters to elect Republicans as a check on Hillary Clinton.

Republican candidates and groups are also weighing a renewed television barrage against Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-California, and the House minority leader, who is unpopular in many swing districts there.

The stakes are high: Should Trump lose the presidential race and take the Republicans’ Senate majority with him, handing Democrats the power to break the deadlock over appointees to the Supreme Court, the House could become the party’s last line of defence in Washington.

While Democrats have sought publicly to temper expectations that they could win the House, in private meetings, they are laying out ways to expand their battle plan to fight for more seats.

And their donors appear increasingly motivated: Last month, the House Democratic campaign raised $12 million (Dh44.07 million) while House Republicans raised just $4.6 million, a remarkable disparity given that the party in control usually dominates fund-raising.

Pelosi emailed fellow lawmakers on Thursday and highlighted an academic study that suggested the majority might be within reach, according to someone who received the message, who requested anonymity because the message was supposed to be private.

And at a retreat this month in California that Pelosi convened in Napa Valley, Rep. Ben Ray Lujan of New Mexico gave a presentation to donors outlining plans to put new seats in play.

Some of the party’s most promising candidates from those districts attended the gathering, which featured California Chardonnays and “red to blue” cards distributed to donors identifying which candidates had the most potential to flip Republican seats.

Lujan, who heads the House Democratic campaign committee, said Trump’s toxic standing with women had put a range of additional Republican incumbents in jeopardy, according to several people who attended the presentation.

Alixandria Lapp, a Democratic strategist who leads a “super PAC” focused on House races, told the group that the Bergen County, New Jersey, seat held by Rep. Scott Garrett is the kind of Republican district where Democrats could make gains.

Democratic strategists say they believe as many as a dozen districts could become competitive late in the race, depending on Trump’s fortunes. Among the Republican districts that Democrats see as newly threatened are those held by Reps. John L. Mica of Florida, who represents the Orlando area; Kevin Yoder of Kansas, from the suburbs of Kansas City; and Michael G. Fitzpatrick, a lawmaker from a district outside Philadelphia who is retiring. Several others represent diverse, economically comfortable areas of California, including Reps. Darrell E. Issa and Ed Royce, from the San Diego and Los Angeles suburbs.

Both parties are also eyeing a set of moderate- to conservative-leaning open seats in states like Indiana and Minnesota, where incumbents are retiring or running for other offices. Republicans fear that Trump has tainted the party’s brand for any prospective successor in areas without a well-known lawmaker already in place.

What ultimately may block Democrats from winning the 30 seats they need to take the House majority are their continued struggles in rural, working-class districts. And many of the suburban districts Democrats hope to contest are expensive to advertise in.

But Republicans acknowledge Trump has taken a toll.

“I don’t think we’re to the point of losing the majority, but we’d be foolish to be complacent,” said Rep. Tom Cole of Oklahoma. “We don’t know from one day to next how the top of the ticket will perform.”

At their own donor retreat last week in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, House Republicans were frank about the difficulties Trump has created for their candidates.