Naidu likely to dissolve assembly

Opposition lawmakers are certain that the Chandrababu Naidu government in southern Andhra Pradesh is set on early elections and will dissolve the state assembly anytime soon.

But a former law minister D.K. Samarasimha Reddysaid yesterday that he could not do so without valid reason and that the courts have the powers to stop it.

Political analysts say Chief Minister Naidu has decided not to convene the next budget session scheduled for March 2004. He is clearly exploring ways to convince everyone of the need for an early electiont.

"The Chief Minister has successfully conducted the Afro-Asian Games. He has said the financial position has improved and there is no law and order problem. He has said there has been no failure of the constitutional machinery. Then, why should he dissolve the assembly, if not to surprise the opposition and gain political advantage?"

He said people gave Naidu a five-year mandate. If he did not complete his full term, it would only mean he failed to fulfil his constitutional obligation. Reddy said he was relying heavly on the 195-page Supreme Court judgement in the SR Bommai case in 1994.

"When NT Rama Rao's government recommended dissolution in 1984, he had a valid reason that some legislators betrayed the mandate given by the people, therefore the Governor accepted it. But when NTR did that again in 1995, the Governor was not satisfied with his reasons for dissolution, because NTR no longer had majority support in the party.

"And the Supreme Court judgement says if it is an issue of losing majority, it should be first tested in the Assembly, rather than through dissolution."

"Also, going by the Supreme Court judgement in the Rabri Devi government issue, the courts can restore the Assembly if it was dissolved on irrelevant and extraneous grounds."

There are enough indicators to suggest elections are around the corner. The government's mandatory Naxalite-bashing has grown. There is talk of a likely shake-up in the administration. The process of announcing doles for the poor has begun in earnest.