Letter from Lahore: Horse-trading tops political agenda

The scenes are familiar ones to all those who have followed events at key junctures in the country's political history.

At Iftar and dinner parties hosted in various homes in Lahore 'offers' or 'incentives' as some prefer to call them are being floated to politicians who have made it to the National Assembly.
And though the players may be new, the tactics are old ones.

Ministries, cash and other temptations all figure and it is no surprise that some are already planning the switch in loyalties necessary to collect these benefits. With similar games also under way in Islamabad, the blatant openness in which this horse-trading is being carried out has surprised many. This was, after all, supposed to be an era of cleaner, more ethical politics.

Any hopes of that though have now virtually vanished and senior members of the PML-QA, the 'king's party' have in many cases made few bones about the fact that they believe "luring over" around 15 PPPP men is the best strategy in the present deadlocked situation. And despite the fact that press reports have made increasing mention of the horse-trading, there has been no comment from official quarters.

It is also speculated that the law barring floor-crossing will in one way or another be removed to ease the task for the PML-QA, with the priorities of power politics easily superseding any interest in ensuring that the political corruption of the past does not make a comeback as a new government is formed.

Early signs also suggest that the experienced PML-QA team is meeting with encouraging success in its efforts. At least three PPPP MNAs are making no bones about the fact that they have switched over, claiming that this is a "democratic right" they cannot be denied. Others are said to be set to follow them.

However, even if a PPP 'breakaway group' does not figure in future government forming exercises, with some saying the 'horse-breaking' attempts are intended merely as a warning to the party, the trend has been set and the signal sent that no real change from the past has occurred.

Principal attention in Lahore in this regard has focused on the residence of senior PPPP leader, Faisel Saleh Hayat, where meetings have taken place almost daily. Talk suggests that Faisel is leading a 'splinter' group of around 17, despite the denials that have come in response to such charges.

However, the rumours persist, and some circles in the city at least are convinced that after their initial, ambitious demands were rejected by the PML-QA leadership, this 'forward bloc' is now toning down its list.

Indeed, despite the fact that the PML-QA parliamentary leader, the suave Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali, is apparently keen to avoid horse-trading, most in Lahore's political circles believe it is this that will eventually break the ongoing deadlock.

The question of how many have been "won over" and how many remain is the crucial one, with predictions suggesting that this will in fact determine when the National Assembly meets. But, in these cynical times, there are others who insist that the wily Makhdoom Amin Fahim may yet have his day.

Introduced to Lahore for the first time as he began a hectic round of political meetings in the city last month, many who have met him, see him as a sharp political player, who may yet have some cards up his sleeve. Whether he can deal these out at the right time and succeed in his still secretive game plan is as yet uncertain.

But, despite the fact that Fahim's refusal to make any public commitment has already angered old allies, and is said to be raising hackles within the rival PML-QA camp too, there are voices that suggest he is the man to watch.

These voices suggest more twists will yet be seen in the ongoing political melodrama and that Fahim's chances of reaching the fairytale-like building housing the prime minister's secretariat in Islamabad have not yet substantially dimmed despite the failure so far to reach an agreement on government making that would end the increased uncertainty hanging over the country's political future.