Letter from Lahore: Azhar's ouster aggravates instability

The unceremonious ouster of Mian Azhar as chief of the ruling PML-QA was by no means an unexpected event.

Many had seen such a move coming in the wake of the post-election tussle for control of the PML-QA as the crisis within the party intensified.

It is also true that in fact the position of Azhar had been weakened well before this.

Establishment support for him had quite visibly been pulled back, well ahead of the polls, with those holding the reins of power apparently becoming convinced that Azhar, a man of few words and some say limited political ability, would be ill-suited to handling affairs at a national level.

As such, real power within the PML-QA had already been delegated to the wily veteran of political game-playing, Chaudhry Shujaat, who led PML-QA government forming efforts as well as negotiations with the Musharraf regime.

But, for all his failings, Azhar had certain strong points as well. He remains a politician with considerable respect as a man of honesty and one known for his humility.

He was also the acceptable, compromise choice for a significant number within the PML-QA unwilling to tolerate leadership by Shujaat, who has a large number of political enemies, or even Jamali, a man who has little political standing at the national level – and almost none at all in Punjab, the heartland of the PML.

As such, with Azhar's ouster, the PML-QA could find its burden of problems has been added to rather than lightened.

With Jamali already one of the weakest prime ministers in the country's history, he can ill-afford to have further opposition take root within his own party.

And the fact that Azhar takes with him several political heavyweights such as Begum Abida Hussain, a woman not known to remain a silent observer for long, is another factor that could add to the problem-creating powers of the sidelined PML-QA leaders.

The emerging evidence that Azhar has already established contacts with the exiled Sharif family and even Benazir Bhutto can again only cause further alarm in official quarters.

As a mediator, Azhar is seen by many as the perfect man to bring opponents together, and as such he could play a crucial role in building a strong front against the government.This can only add to the uncertainty already prevailing within the country.

There are growing fears that given the problems he faces, Jamali will find it difficult to solve them.

Two provinces, Sindh and Balochistan, are almost certain to end up with unstable governments vulnerable to moves against them, while in the NWFP, the government of the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) is already posing challenges.

By threatening to force U.S. troops out of tribal areas and imposing a dress code for women in some educational institutions only weeks after assuming power, the MMA seems to have shown little regard for policies advocated by the centre.

These factors are almost certain to create a more direct confrontation at one time or another, especially over the issue of policy on the U.S. How the Jamali government sets about tackling these multiple difficulties is a matter that will be closely watched.

It is, however, clear to many that he can ill-afford creating new enemies at this juncture, and by forcing Azhar in to the opposition camp, the forces lined up against him have expanded.

This can only augur ill for the government and for democracy as a whole within the country, as yet another attempt begins to build the institutions that can play a part in providing much needed stability and resolving the growing issues faced by people everywhere in the country.