Hung assembly likely in Kashmir

The sensitive northern state of Jammu and Kashmir could well be set to elect a hung assembly as counting of votes begins today amidst tight security.

Results for all 85 seats that went to polls in four phases between September 18 and October 8 are expected to be declared today itself.

Independent candidates were declared unopposed for two seats in the Ladakh region after no other nominations were filed.

According to intelligence sources, the ruling National Conference (NC), which had 57 members in the outgoing 87-member state legislative assembly, will emerge as the single largest party despite losing heavily, while the Congress party and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) are expected to emerge second and third respectively.

However, the combined strength of the Congress party and the PDP will be less than that of the NC, intelligence sources said, adding that about nine independents, who are expected to get elected, will play a crucial role in the formation of the next government.

The NC is expected to lose between 20 to 22 seats and may end up with 35 to 37 seats. Any party or alliance will need the support of at least 44 legislators to form the new government.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which was the second largest party in the outgoing assembly with seven legislators, is expected to win about four seats. Indications available with the BJP central leadership suggest that they will support the NC in its bid to form the next government, although no official announcement has been made in this regard so far.

The two parties, despite being partners of the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) at the centre, fought a bitter battle during polling. The Congress party yesterday announced that it would join hands with the PDP and other smaller parties and independents.

While various combinations and permutations are being worked out to keep the NC out of power, NC chief Omar Abdullah's assertion that he will sit in the opposition if his party failed to win a minimum of 44 seats has added a new twist to the suspense.

"We won't form a government if we get less than 44 seats. I want to see Mehbooba Mufti (PDP leader), Ghulam Nabi Azad (state Congress chief) and others fighting for chief ministership," Abdullah, the junior foreign minister of India, said yesterday in the state capital Srinagar, while asserting that his party will win the majority on its won.

Intelligence sources, however, countered Abdullah's claim saying the party will suffer heavily due to the widespread anti-incumbency factor that was at play this time.

"The high voter turnout (46 per cent of the voters in the state cast their ballot this time) is as much a reflection of voters' anger with the NC as to the fact that the Election Commission succeeded in convincing voters about the fairness of polls this year," intelligence sources said.

It is also being said that the failure of the Congress party and the PDP to form a pre-poll alliance gave the NC some kind of a reprieve. Moreover, the failure of both parties to name their chief ministerial candidates also worked against them.

Although the Congress party is expected to root for Azad, the PDP has left everyone guessing on whether it will be Mehbooba or her father Mufti Mohammed Sayeed, a former federal minister, who will head the new government in case the party is voted to power.

While the successful conduct of elections amidst attempts of militants to scare away voters by use of violence and the high percentage of voter turnout is a good commentary on the federal government, intelligence sources indicated that the political turmoil that will follow the election of a hung assembly may even derail the centre's efforts to normalise the situation in the state.

The federal Home Ministry is already worried about what impact the changed scenario – political instability and expected horse-trading – will have on its Kashmir initiative as well as on the country's already strained ties with neighbouring Pakistan.

Outgoing Chief Minister Farooq Abdullah, who opted against contesting, left the country to be with his daughter in South Africa even before the polls were over, after handing over the baton to his son Omar amidst reports of differences between the two.