GCC perception of Iran threat 'exaggerated'

Tehran not in position to destabilise region, ex-envoy says

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Abu Dhabi: Iran's military and political threat to the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has been blown out of proportion, according to the former British ambassador to the Islamic republic.

"The emphasis on the increased role and influence of Iran since the fall of Saddam Hussain has been exaggerated," Sir Richard Dalton said.

An advocate of greater regional security cooperation between the GCC member countries, Iraq and Iran, Sir Richard maintains that Iran's power has not substantially increased, nor has its regional role in general.

"Iran is not going to dominate your [GCC] region. I think the word hegemony was misused when attached to a country like Iran, when in fact its capabilities are not that great," he said while giving a lecture at the Emirates Centre for Strategic Studies and Research recently.

The relationship between the GCC states and Iran has a long pedigree of managed tension, occasional flare-ups, cautious balancing and intermittent attempts at co-operation.

However, the GCC states have usually found ways to countermand risks arising from Iran without riling Tehran. Sir Richard also questioned the argument that Iran's influence in Iraq poses a greater threat to the GCC countries than even Saddam Hussain.

There is tremendous scope for increasing cooperation between the GCC countries and Iran despite obvious differences and impediments, provided a progressive approach is adopted that is not based on an anti-Iranian alliance, Sir Richard said.

Balance of power

"An approach to ensuring peace based on a balance of power is still correct, despite criticisms of this voiced in the Gulf, and that the roles of different entities including Nato can be complementary," he said.

In a report he co-authored, Sir Richard touches on the distrust of Iran in the region. In addition to the widely-felt apprehension in the GCC that Iran wants to dominate the region, he observed, there are specific security concerns, including the safety of offshore oil and gas installations.

Qatar, the report notes, has been told it would be attacked first should it collude with the US to facilitate an attack on Iran, Oman is watchful about a military clash in the Strait of Hormuz, and Bahrain is nervous about possible Iranian adventurism. Bahrain, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia too have concerns about Iranian influence amongst their respective Shiite populations and the UAE continues to press its case about its occupied islands of Abu Mousa and the Greater and Lesser Tunbs.

The report, "Iran: Breaking the nuclear deadlock," argued the prospect of Iranian nuclear power reinforcing many such fears: it would strengthen Iran's drive for predominance and threaten to draw the region into armed conflict.

GCC states announced in 2007 an intention to explore civilian nuclear power although this could be viewed in part as diplomatic theatre. In 2008, several states signed civilian nuclear cooperation agreements with French and US groups, with the UAE ahead in terms of tangible plans.

Sir Richard said all the GCC states remain very concerned about the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran and have been seeking to forestall this scenario by giving indirect signals, mainly by trying to persuade the EU to involve them seriously in attempts to engage Iran.

Yet, however worried they may be, no member of the bloc is seeking a military solution.

Policy of persuasion

The GCC states, in their different ways, have decided on a policy of persuasion, containment, and coexistence — all the while retaining an ultimate "insurance" in the shape of defence understandings with the US. The general belief also seems to be that any US or Israeli military intervention would be a cure worse than the illness. An attack would bring on direct military, political, economic and environmental consequences for the GCC states and, quite possibly, result in a less stable, less predictable, more radical, and thus, more dangerous, Iran.

While emphasising that it is for those most closely involved in the region to highlight their needs and perspectives, Sir Richard suggested a number of security options, including a regional security forum, a process involving flexible networks, or a structured organisation to counterbalance the threat.

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