Rio Olympic Games 2016 medal scores predicted using economics
As per this predictive model, United States will lead the medal table and Brazil will win 18 medals
Olympic medal predictions are done for every edition of the Games and people usually bet solely based on previous accomplishments, their favourite athletes or participating countries. This year, we give you an Olympic Games medal table predicted using economics.
Combining economic factors, past performance and a host advantage criteria, Camila Gonzales from Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth College has predicted the medal tally of Rio Olympics 2016. The prediction model she used was initially unveiled before the Sydney Olympics (2000) and was developed by Andrew B. Bernard and Meghan R. Busse – professors at Tuck School of Business.
Methodology
As per the paper published by the creators of the model, the national medal numbers are affected by four factors – population of the country, per capita income, past performance and host country advantage. For Brazil this year the last factor may not come into play because, despite its investment in the Rio Olympics 2016, the general investment in training and infrastructure for sports is not that great.
It is claimed that the model predicted the London 2012 Olympic medal tally with 98 per cent accuracy. So here are the predictions for the Rio Olympic Games
Top 5 Medal Winning Countries
Country-wise Medal Table (6 medals or more)
Country-wise Gold Medal Table (4 medals or more)
Uncertainty
Though the Russian doping scandal and the resultant absence of many of the country's athletes has been factored in to the predictions, this remains an area of uncertainty.
