Can Spain’s possession shield withstand France’s explosive transitions in the semi?
Forget the star names for a moment. This World Cup semi final could come down to one battle more than any other, Spain's midfield against France's frightening attack.
If Rodri and Spain control the game with the ball, they have every chance of reaching another World Cup final. But if Kylian Mbappe, Ousmane Dembele and the rest of France's explosive front line get space to run into, Spain could be in for a very long night.
That is what makes this such a fascinating tactical contest.
Spain do not just keep possession for the sake of it. They defend with the ball. The longer they have it, the fewer opportunities opponents get to attack.
Rodri has been the heartbeat of that system throughout the tournament. Everything goes through him. The challenge for Spain is getting the players around him to reach the same level. Frnace have a decent midfield of Rabbiot and Manu KOne or Tchoumeni and one of the attacers join them to stop the outnumbering of midfield but Spain have better technicians.
France are not weak in midfield either. Adrien Rabiot alongside either Manu Kone or Aurelien Tchouameni gives Didier Deschamps plenty of energy, physicality and ball winning ability. One of France's attacking players also regularly drops into midfield to prevent being outnumbered.
But Spain still have the better technicians.
Fabian Ruiz started ahead of Pedri in the quarter final against Belgium and justified the decision with another impressive display and a goal. Pedri, meanwhile, has not quite reached his best level yet, while Dani Olmo's movement between the lines will also be vital if Spain are to unlock France's defence.
Spain were actually a more adaptable side when they beat France in the Euro 2024 semi final. With Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal flying down either flank, they could dominate possession but also sit back and punish teams on the counter.
This Spain are slightly different.
Nico Williams has not been fully fit and Spain have lost some of that explosiveness on the left. Alex Baena naturally drifts inside, leaving Marc Cucurella to provide much of the width. As a result, Spain have become even more dependent on controlling possession than they were two years ago.
The good news for Spain is that they have players who consistently deliver in big moments. They may not score as freely as France, but they have some clutch performers. Lamine Yamal seems to be getting sharper with every game, while Mikel Merino has once again shown his habit of coming off the bench and scoring important goals. If Nico Williams is finally fit enough to make a real impact, Spain become a much bigger attacking threat. Oyarzabal has gone quiet in the recent games but he is an underrated footballer.
The scary thing about this France side is that they are comfortable playing any style.
If they need possession, they can dominate the ball. If the game demands patience, they are happy to sit deeper, absorb pressure and then explode on the counter.
Very few teams have the attacking quality to punish mistakes the way France can.
Mbappe leads the World Cup scoring charts with eight goals, Dembele has five, while Michael Olise and Desire Doue have added creativity and pace. Bradley Barcola offers another game changing option from the bench, while Jean Philippe Mateta gives Didier Deschamps a completely different solution if France need a physical number nine. Then there is Rayan Cherki, who can barely get into the conversation despite the season he has had. That tells you everything about the attacking depth France possess. Few teams in world football can match that kind of firepower.
This is not a team that relies on one superstar. France have match winners everywhere across the front line.
Spain have enjoyed recent success against France, winning both the Euro 2024 semi final and last year's Nations League thriller.
But this France team feels different.
Deschamps did not have his current four attacker setup during the Euros. By the Nations League he had started moving towards it, and now it looks complete.
With Mbappe, Dembele, Olise and Doue or Barcola all capable of starting together, France have pace, creativity and goals all over the pitch. Add Mateta as another option and they have answers for almost every situation.
For all of France's attacking quality, Spain will believe there are opportunities of their own.
Jules Kounde and Lucas Digne have hardly been tested defensively during this tournament because France have spent so much time on the front foot. If Lamine Yamal can isolate Digne and Spain can get joy down the flanks, there will be chances to create opportunities.
Spain's answer whenever they lose the ball is to counter press aggressively and stop transitions before they even begin. That approach has worked brilliantly throughout the tournament.
But will they be willing to take the same risk against France?
Pedro Porro loves getting forward to support Lamine, while Cucurella often provides the width on the opposite side because Alex Baena naturally drifts inside. If both full backs push high and France play through Spain's counter press, Mbappe and Dembele could suddenly find themselves running at Spain's centre backs in open space.
Spain simply have to be clinical as well. Against a French side with this much firepower, missed chances are unlikely to go unpunished. The balance between committing bodies forward and protecting against France's devastating transitions could ultimately decide who reaches the World Cup final.
Do not be surprised if Spain finish with far more possession.
That does not necessarily mean they will be winning.
Everything depends on what happens the moment Spain lose the ball. If Rodri, Fabian Ruiz/Pedri and Olmo can control the midfield and stop France's transitions before they begin, Spain will fancy their chances.
But if Mbappe, Dembele and France's other attackers get even a handful of opportunities to attack open space, they have the quality to punish anyone.
That is why this has all the ingredients to be the standout tactical battle of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. We just can't wait to witness it.