Thursday’s final group game against Belgium to determine who will finish first and second in Group G represents a major crossroads in England’s World Cup.
It appears to count for very little with both sides having already qualified for the next round. However, it will either be the point at which England’s early free scoring form against much weaker opponents is backed up against a bigger team, or it will be — as I suspect — where the first cracks begin to appear in their yet to be tested defence.
Either way, you can’t read too much into what the Three Lions have achieved so far, as beating Tunisia and Panama should be a given. Yes, they have restored some pride and there is a newfound confidence under Gareth Southgate, but the real tournament starts now.
There are those that might argue that it doesn’t matter if England lose to Belgium and finish second, in fact, it might even be better, if you prefer to face Japan over Colombia in the Last 16 — but even that equation can’t be guaranteed until Thursday’s Group H matches wrap up an hour before the Belgium game.
I would argue though, that however seemingly unimportant this match sounds, a defeat against Belgium — be it with second-string sides or not — would sow the first seeds of doubt among the players, and should be avoided at all costs.
For that reason, this is in fact a crucial game to win (or draw) for confidence going forward. It may be even the most crucial match of England’s entire tournament.
I’d much rather see them top the group and go into a harder part of the draw safe in the knowledge that their confidence is intact, than end the group beaten with nagging doubts going up against a more favourable opponent like Japan.
The truth is of course that nobody is favourable going forward and that if you are going to win this tournament you are going to have to face a big gun like Brazil or Germany eventually, so you may as well step up to the plate, and to stand a chance of overcoming that takes confidence.
Easing up against Belgium of course might give you more legs going forward, but that attitude undermines the importance of maintaining confidence and momentum.
With the lack of confidence we have seen among the big guns so far — Portugal, Spain, Argentina, Brazil and Germany, even Colombia, have been unconvincing — this World Cup is open to anyone.
So, if England can keep this going against Belgium now, who is to say they can’t go all the way? A defeat however, might just symbolise the beginning of the end.
