New ball is the key at Melbourne

This is a make or break Test match for both teams. England can retain the Ashes at the MCG but an Australia victory will change the complexion of the series. England would have to go to Sydney needing a win to keep hold of the urn.

That changes the mindset dramatically and could be dangerous for them. I said at the beginning of the series that Australia would win by one Test. I stick by that prediction, which is why I believe they will win at the MCG.

This is where Australia get the best support of any ground in the country, and there will be a rollicking atmosphere. All the players will enjoy the buzz. We have seen that anything can happen between these two sides.

England had a winning draw in Brisbane and then smashed Australia in Adelaide. Australia hammered England in Perth, which means momentum is with them at a crucial time.

Think back to Brisbane. England came off the back of 517 for one in their second innings and went into Adelaide riding high. Australia will win here because they have all the momentum after their win in Perth.

Clarity

In sport momentum has an impact on everything, even preparation. Australia will be confident and have clarity about what they need to work on. England will be thinking that they have to do certain things better. They will be working on extra stuff to try to get everything right. They have to turn it around very quickly. It will be tough because Australia know the conditions in Melbourne.

They use drop-in pitches at the MCG, which means it is irrelevant what the wicket looks like at the toss. It does not matter if it is green, brown or white because it will get flatter as the match progresses. Basically the new ball is key. The batting side have got to get through the first 35 overs losing only one or two wickets.

If that happens they will get a big score, and at the MCG that does not have to be 450. Around 350 can be enough because the outfield is quite slow; it does not quicken up until the one-dayers in January.

Once the shine and hardness have gone from the new ball it becomes hard work for the bowlers, which is why I am not sure how these conspiracy theories over switching the pitch gathered pace.

Everyone talks about four quicks for Australia, but they have to remember that Shane Watson is a successful seamer in Test cricket, so the decision is over whether they go for four quicks, plus Watson, plus Steven Smith's leg-spin or three quicks, Watson, Smith and the left-arm spinner Michael Beer.

Pace

I can understand why after Perth everyone thinks pace is the way forward, but Watson did not bowl a ball at the Waca. Three quicks, plus Watson, should be enough, so I would give Beer his debut to give the attack plenty of variety. But it would not surprise me if Australia go for five quicks.

It has been tight between these teams for a long time. The 2009 Ashes series was 1-1 going into the last Test. Both played in the final of the World Twenty20 earlier this year and now this series is very close. It will come down to which big players fire at the right time. If they do not perform then their team will lose. It is as simple as that.