IPL: Why Mumbai-Punjab clash is important for playoffs, various scenarios explained

Dubai: After 68 matches, the IPL table still refuses to settle. Punjab Kings, Mumbai Indians and Royal Challengers Bengaluru are all in with a chance to finish in the top two, but with just two games left in the league stage, every ball could shift the playoff puzzle — and Gujarat Titans may yet lose the top spot they once seemed to own.

The Titans, Punjab, Bengaluru and Mumbai have sealed their places in the playoffs, but the top two — which offer a vital second chance in Qualifier 1 — remain up for grabs.

Tonight’s showdown between Punjab and Mumbai could decide one of those two spots. On Tuesday, RCB will face Lucknow Super Giants in the final league match, hoping to leapfrog into the top two themselves.

All three contenders — Gujarat, Punjab and Bengaluru — are coming off defeats in their previous outings, giving an in-form Mumbai side a possible edge. The five-time champions have won seven of their last eight matches, with their only loss coming against Gujarat in a rain-hit game.

For Punjab, this is already a landmark season. Under new captain Shreyas Iyer, they have reached the playoffs for the first time in 11 years. But their six-wicket loss to Delhi Capitals last week, despite posting 206, exposed frailties in their bowling — particularly at the death.

Iyer admitted the side lost its discipline when plans didn’t quite come off.

“I think we weren’t disciplined enough in terms of our execution,” he said after the match. “Once we read the wicket in the first innings, we had planned to bowl hard lengths as much as possible. I think we went a bit overboard in terms of bowling bouncers and tried to take wickets. Couldn’t execute that, but a great learning for the boys.”

Punjab are also sweating over the availability of leg-spinner Yuzvendra Chahal, who missed the Delhi game due to a niggle. In his absence, left-arm spinner Harpreet Brar took 2-41 but couldn’t prevent defeat.

Chahal’s experience could be vital against Mumbai’s powerful middle order. So far this season, Arshdeep Singh leads Punjab’s bowling with 16 wickets at an economy of 8.70. Chahal and Marco Jansen have 14 apiece, while Brar has chipped in with nine.

Former India cricketer Sanjay Manjrekar, speaking on JioHotstar, pinpointed Punjab’s bowling as their biggest weakness. “Punjab Kings’ batting looks good — that’s one area that’s fairly organised. Bowling is the worry,” he said.

“Let’s hope Chahal gets fit quickly because when you have someone like Omarzai bowling the 18th over and Stoinis the 20th, you leave yourself open to being defeated in tight matches. That’s an area they really need to work on.”

Gujarat’s heavy loss to Chennai Super Kings on Sunday has added intrigue to the final league fixtures.

Here’s how the final standings could shift depending on the results of the next two games:

Mumbai will move to the top two, level on points with Gujarat (18), while Punjab will drop to third or fourth on net run-rate with 17 — the same tally as RCB.

Punjab will top the table with 19 points, earning a place in Qualifier 1. Gujarat (18) will take second, Bengaluru (17) third, and Mumbai (16) will stay fourth — meaning RCB and MI meet in the Eliminator.

Punjab and Bengaluru will finish on 19 points each and play in Qualifier 1. Gujarat (18) and Mumbai (16) will contest the Eliminator, with the winners facing the loser of Qualifier 1 in Qualifier 2 on Sunday in Ahmedabad.

Bengaluru will top the table with 19 points. Gujarat and Mumbai (both on 18) will take the next two spots — with net run-rate deciding who finishes second — while Punjab stay fourth and face the third-placed team in the Eliminator.