India vs England, 1st Test: Why England will win at Headingley

Will England win the Headingley Test? Quite possible. Especially in the era of Bazball. They need only 350 runs, having knocked off 21 on Monday. And they have all 10 wickets in hand.

Certainly, the odds are in England’s favour. Remember, they chased down 378, losing only three wickets to win the Birmingham Test three years back. One of the architects of the triumph, Joe Root, is still around. The Yorkshireman will be keen to steer England home in his backyard and become the hometown hero.

How did India get here? After all, they scored five centuries in two innings. Yet they could suffer defeat, and that’s largely due to some spineless batting from the late middle order.

Batting collapses are a familiar trait of Indian cricket. Look at the first innings: India at 430/3 were targeting a total of over 500 and more, only to slump to 471 all out — seven wickets were lost for 41 runs. The second innings wasn’t any different: India, from 333/5, lost the next five wickets for 31 runs — it robbed them of the chance to set England a more daunting target of over 400.

Not just the batting. The fielding too has been appalling. Who expected star fielder Ravindra Jadeja to put down Ben Duckett. Yashasvi Jaiswal spilt two, including Ollie Pope (who went on to score a century). Six catches went down, which, according to former England captain Michael Vaughan, deprived India of a lead of 150 runs.

Well, England too reprieved KL Rahul and Rishabh Pant, but that’s not the point. India will have to improve their catching if they have to harbour hopes of winning the Leeds Test.

That’s not enough. Jasprit Bumrah, who scalped five in the first innings, will need solid support from fellow seamers Mohammed Siraj and Prasidh Krishna. While Siraj troubled the English batters at times, the same couldn’t be said of Krishna. The two will have to build pressure from one end to make Bumrah more effective. And that could be the difference between a win and a loss.

Shardul Thakur has been a poor pick. He doesn’t enjoy captain Shubman Gill’s confidence, and that showed as he leaked runs. Thakur didn’t chip in with runs either, which makes it a selection gaffe. Left-arm leggie Kuldeep Yadav would have been more useful and could have been a matchwinner in the second innings as the pitch has become worn out.

Jadeja’s left-arm spin could still turn the tide for India on the fifth day. He could be an ideal foil for Bumrah. If the two can flummox the English batsmen, India could go 1-0 up in the series.

Right now, the match is evenly poised. England have the home advantage: familiar conditions and tremendous crowd support too. Still, an Indian win is possible. But an England win is more likely. Hope I’m proved wrong.