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India and Pakistan players leave the field after the league match in Ahmedabad on October 14. The Asian giants could meet again in the semifinals. Image Credit: ANI

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Dubai: Pakistan’s win over New Zealand has brightened the semi-final chances for Babar Azam’s team and a possible meeting with Asian neighbours and hosts India.

For Pakistan, a situation like this is not new. In 1992, when they were almost down and out, the team led by legendary all-rounder Imran Khan. His motivational talk asking the players to fight like cornered tigers helped Pakistan win their first World Cup title.

Permutations and combinations

Currently, the team’s in the same boat. Their performance against New Zealand backed by a century from Fakhar Zaman have raised the hopes. Pakistan look highly capable of repeating the feat the team did in Australia in 1992 and clinch the last spot in the semi-finals.

But it’s still a Herculean task where they also need the luck factor with other results going their way.

It is a given that India will finish No 1. With 16 points, the Men in Blue will have a clear edge than the rest even if they lose to the Netherlands in their final league clash. Here are the scenarios how Pakistan could play India in the semi-finals:

Scenario 1

Fakhar zaman
Pakistan opener Fakhar Zaman has returned to his demolishing best at the right time. His century helped Pakistan win the high-scoring contest against New Zealand. Image Credit: AFP

New Zealand lose to Sri Lanka and Pakistan win against England

The Black Caps have made a strong start to their campaign in this edition, winning the first four games. However, four straight loses, including the one against Pakistan via Duckworth Lewis method has really put them in troubled waters. Both New Zealand and Pakistan are on par with Afghanistan, who have an extra match on hand. But Afghanistan have two big teams to contend with — South Africa and Australia. So if they lose both the games, then New Zealand and Pakistan will be vying for the lone spot. If Sri Lanka beat New Zealand on Thursday, then Pakistan need to just extend their winning run against defending champions England. A victory will give Pakistan the much-needed two points and a place in the semi-finals.

Scenario 2

Rachin Ravindra
Rachin Ravindra has been in stunning form for New Zealand, helping them reach big scores. Image Credit: ANI

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New Zealand beat Sri Lanka and Pakistan need to beat England by big margin

New Zealand hold a higher net run-rate currently against both Pakistan and Afghanistan and hence if they win their last group match against Sri Lanka, they will almost certainly put themselves firmly in fourth spot. Young New Zealand opener Rachin Ravindra is key to the Black Caps as the left-hander has two centuries and one half-century in his maiden World Cup. Then for Pakistan, it becomes a bit tricky as they need to beat England by a handsome margin. At the current run-rate, the following is the calculations made by BCCI statistician Mohandas Menon assuming New Zealand win and maintain their current NRR, then Pakistan have to beat England by the following margins:

Batting first

375 and win by 149 runs

350 and win by 150 runs

300 and win by 148 runs

Or chasing a target

275 and win by 144 balls

250 and win by 146 balls

200 and win by 148 balls.

Scenario 3

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Australians have found their winning formula and are on five-match winning streak after two early loses. Image Credit: Reuters

Australia lose both matches against Afghanistan and Bangladesh

The five-time champions are back in the winning groove and it is difficult for them to lose from here. However, if they lose both their league matches, then they will also be on 10 points, which means four teams — Australia, New Zealand, Pakistan and Afghanistan — will be vying for last two spots, which will take it to the penultimate day of the league stage, November 11. However, Australians have been unstoppable as they are on a five-match winning streak.

Scenario 4

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Afghanistan have been a revelation during this World Cup, stunning England, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Image Credit: Source: Afghanistan Cricket Board Twitter

Afghanistan continuing their winning march

Afghanistan could play party spoilers to all the other three giants of world cricket if they win both their league matches. The giant-killers of this edition with victories over defending champions England and former champions Pakistan and Sri Lanka, the Hasmatullah Shahidi-led team have showed the world that they have come of age and are no longer pushovers. Afghans could move up to third place with wins over Australia and South Africa, leaving Australia, New Zealand and Pakistan contesting for the lone spot.

Scenario 5

Rain forced an early close during the league match between Pakistan and New Zealand in Bengaluru on Saturday. Image Credit: ANI

Rains to provide twist to the tale

All these calculations could go wrong and rains could provide the twist to the tale, just the way it happened in Bengaluru between Pakistan and New Zealand. A washout could dash the hopes of any of the four teams.