Omicron impact: Experts urge scaling up surveillance, testing, sequencing, samples-sharing, avoiding bans

ANALYSIS: New data are emerging every day, but scientists need time to complete studies and interpret the results. Every day, thousands of experts around the world are convened by the World Health Organisation (WHO) to share and analyse data and drive research forward. The agency urges governments to "scale up surveillance, testing and sequencing, and share samples with the international community, avoid ineffective and discriminatory travel bans."

VACCINE-ESCAPE: There’s an emerging consensus among experts pouring though initial data on Omicron: no sign the highly-mutated variant could fully “escape” or sidestep immunity conferred by existing COVID-19 vaccines. Top US scientist Dr. Anthony Fauci said the Omicron variant is “almost certainly” not more severe than Delta.

REINFECTION RISK: “Initial data suggest increased risk of reinfection with Omicron…Certain features of Omicron, including its global spread and large number of mutations, suggest it could have a major impact on the course of the pandemic. Exactly what that impact will be is still difficult to know. We must be careful about drawing firm conclusions until we have a more complete picture,” said Dr Tedr Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director general of the World Health Organisation (WHO).

SIGNIFICANT PROTECTION: “Based on the levels we have observed in these preliminary studies, we expect a significant protection against any type of COVID-19 mediated by Omicron in individuals who have received the third vaccine,” said Ugur Sahin, CEO of BioNTech, Pfizer’s coronavirus vaccine partner. “We believe that T-cell responses induced by vaccination, particularly increased by the third dose, will still be active again the Omicron variant.”

INITIAL DATA: Emergencies director Dr Michael Ryan, the WHO second-in-command, told AFP that preliminary data indicated it did not make people sicker than Delta and other strains on Tuesday. He also urged caution: “It’s very early days, we have to be very careful how we interpret that signal.”

LESS SEVERE DISEASE: Omicron does not appear to cause more severe disease than previous COVID-19 variants — and is “highly unlikely” to fully evade or “escape” vaccines, according to a senior WHO offici

VACCINES WORK: “As the headlines start to pour in on waning vaccine effectiveness against Omicron, please remember: These vaccines are best at keeping you out of hospitals and ICUs, not preventing a positive test or mild symptoms. Please take the headlines with a large grain of salt,” said Dr Vin Gupta, a US pulmonologist and Faculty at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) in Seattle, Washington.

SYMPTOMS SEEM MORE MILD: "The WHO said that it looks like the Omicron variant is causing more mild disease among those who are unvaccinated," said Dr. Monica Gandhi, infectious disease specialist and professor of medicine at the University of California, San Francisco. "90% of the people who are in the hospital with Omicron are unvaccinated in South Africa. That’s a really important point. Because that means vaccines protect against this variant. And those symptoms seem more mild, and they’re being described as more muscle aches, more fatigue. Actually, not as much cough or loss of taste and smell, which has really defined COVID-19 before. That’s what has been described so far in South Africa."

LESS SEVERE DISEASE: Omicron does not appear to cause more severe disease than previous COVID-19 variants — and is “highly unlikely” to fully evade or “escape” vaccines, according to a senior WHO official.

MUTATED: The new B.1.1.529 strain was found to be a heavily-mutated version of the coronavirus, first reported in South Africa on November 24. On November 26, the WHO named the new variant as “Omicron”. Initial data from South Africa indicate the new variant is likely more transmissible than previous variants. It is now present in more than 30 countries, including India, US, UK and the UAE.

OMICRON OVERTAKING DELTA: Experts expect Omicron to gradually replace Delta as the dominant strain, but pointed out that Omicron had so far been seen spreading especially quickly in South Africa, where Delta had waned, and may just be “exploiting a gap in the transmission of Delta”.

REINFECTION: There are also indications that Omicron is better at infecting people who have been vaccinated or already had COVID-19. “There is some evidence to suggest that reinfection with Omicron is more common than it was with previous waves or previous variants,” Dr Ryan said. But “we’re particularly interested in seeing not whether you can be reinfected with Omicron, but whether any new infection is more or less severe.”

LESS SEVERE: Dr Mike Ryan said while there’s a lot to be learned about the heavily-mutated variant, he pointed out: “The preliminary data doesn’t indicate that this is more severe. In fact, if anything, the direction is towards less severity.” However, he insisted that more research was needed to confirm the less-severity-with-Omicron thesis.

VACCINES EFFECTIVE: Dr Ryan said the vaccines remain “highly effective” that have proven to confer immunity against all the variants so far, “in terms of severe disease and hospitalisation,” said Ryan, 56, an epidemiologist and former trauma surgeon said. “There’s no reason to expect that it wouldn’t be so” for Omicron.

WHAT SOUTH AFRICA DATA SHOW: Early data from South Africa, where the variant was first detected, “suggest the vaccine at least is holding up in protection terms”. Dr Ryan said it was “possible” that the existing vaccines might prove less effective against Omicron.

MULTIPLE MUTATIONS: The latest variant counts more than 30 mutations on the spike protein that covers the surface of the coronavirus and allows it to invade human cells more efficiently. “The preliminary data from South Africa wouldn’t indicate that we will have a catastrophic loss of (vaccine) efficacy,” said Dr Ryan. “In fact, (it’s) the opposite at the moment.”

VACCINE PROTECTION: Dr Ryan said it was “highly unlikely” it would be able to evade vaccine protections altogether. “We have to confirm if there’s any lapse in that protection, but I would expect to see some protection there…the best weapon we have right now is to get vaccinated.”

PREVENTING SEVERE DISEASE: The current generation of COVID-19 vaccines aim to prevent severe disease but do not necessarily protect against simply contracting the virus, reinfections with mild or no symptoms were of lesser concern.

COVID MEASURES: Despite its mutations, the new variant was still COVID-19, and should be fought with the same measures, including vaccines, masks and physical distancing. “The virus hasn’t changed its nature. It may have changed in terms of its efficiency, but it hasn’t changed the game entirely,” Dr Ryan said. “The rules of the game are still the same.”