The United Nations is moving quickly to try to negotiate an agreement between the warring parties in Libya. The effort headed by UN Special Representative Bernardino Leon to Libya chaired its first round of talks between opposing politicians in Ghadames in September, and there will be a new round of negotiations on December 9.

The key to predicting the failure of UN talks is to say even if there is an apparent agreement announced, that it will be Libyan-style: it will be short lived and the protagonists will resume their hostilities within days or weeks. Don’t be shocked if another Nato intervention in Libya will be necessary.

While the UN and Sudan are angling for settling the dispute between the Tobruk and Tripoli governments, it is clear that any talks in the works are for show only. The result of the Khartoum negotiations, where only the Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HOR) government was present, was intended to illustrate a setting of cooperation for a joint Arab and North African agreement to move forward.

That agreement, according to the ever-knowing UN, is a step in the right direction. Simultaneously, the meeting also shows a modicum of denial that Khartoum is a major supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood and ultimately Libya Dawn in Tripoli. In other words, the meeting and the results are hogwash.

As usual, the UN, and the UNSMIL, are failing to understand the situation on the ground. The Islamists represented by Libya Dawn are criminals and extremists and their very presence is allowing all types of bad guys to be drawn to Libya from throughout the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region and specifically Daesh (Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant), which is now rooted in Derna and beginning to metastasize.

UNSMIL stated basically that all Libyan actors are called upon to their upmost to ensure that violence must cease to give the dialogue a chance. Yeah, right. A week before in Brussels key members of the international community warned that if key stakeholders failed to participate in the talks that “additional measures” will be taken to protect Libya’s unity, stability and prosperity. That remark sounds like a recipe for Nato intervention.

To be sure, understanding the tribal structures and allegiances being built in the current Libyan maelstrom is paramount. Knowing the difference between the Warfalla, Tebu, and Zintan tribes and their clans are key from the ground up. Remember, it’s the tribes stupid — something that Blair disciple and UK Special Envoy Jonathon Powell should remember before dismissing tribal issues as a relic of the past.

The US and other European allies including France and Italy are beating the war drums silently while arguing that the 2011 Nato Operation on their reflection should never have happened. Now, these states are concerned about Libya as a hot-bed of terrorism that could inflame all of the Maghreb driving more refugees to southern Europe and stressing Nato’s security requirements. Forces are being moved closer to Libya for what appears to be eventual intervention because of the security threat to the European Union as a whole. Nato will need to act against Daesh camps sooner rather than later regardless of the results of UN-mediated negotiations.

Lurking on the sidelines is Russia, who just concluded the Arab-Russia Cooperation Forum also in Khartoum. How convenient that the two meetings occurred back to back. The Kremlin wants the UN talks to succeed and not to see another intervention by Nato is a state of high-Russian interest.

On the other hand, the Kremlin may realise that if Nato goes into Libya again, Moscow’s argument regarding the Washington-Brussel’s induced Color Revolutions becomes more valid and will ultimately weaken Nato’s fascination with Ukraine.

Turkey and Qatar’s role in Libya is also at play helping to divide up by proxy Libya into zones of influence against Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Sudan, noted above, has joined this axis to support Libya Dawn in Tripoli. Specifically, Libya and its views about the parties there immediately brings Ankara to one side. For one thing, the AKP government is not hiding its support for the Tripoli-based General National Congress (GNC) and the Omar Al Hassi government — which is not recognised by the international community — against the House of Representatives and the government of Abdullah Al Thinni. No UN negotiations are going to break this divide.

Finally, believe it or not, Iran figures into the equation. Tehran’s assistance in fighting Daesh, in conjunction with the P5+1 talks, is giving the Islamic Republic an extra boost of regional influence in Mena. This encouragement is being hailed by some in the West, specifically Richard Ottaway, chairman of Britain’s House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee, who see Tehran’s ability to help rather than hinder. It is to Tehran’s interests that the Islamic Republic influences its neighbours to play well in Libya. Perhaps Iran can pressure the Turkish-Qatar nexus.

Clearly, the battle lines are drawn, and the UN is wading into the chaos with not a clear plan of action. Peace doesn’t come easy in Libya and waking up to the reality that “No to the UN; Yes to Nato” may become a rallying cry sooner than is expected.

Richard Galustian is a business and security analyst who has lived in Libya since 2011.