The conventional wisdom is that Australians are perfectly capable of distinguishing between state and federal politics. They know that Denis Napthine cannot do much about foreign affairs and Prime Minister Tony Abbott is not responsible for running Melbourne’s hospitals. Wild claims about state election results being a serious blow to Canberra tend to fade quickly.
Yet, in the final stages of this strange Victorian election campaign — with polls scheduled to be held today — the unpopularity of Abbott’s government is a constant low rumble. He is there, even though he is not there. John Howard and Julie Bishop have come to help out the government, only serving to underline that neither of them are the prime minister, who is not really welcome. The Victorian government is in trouble. If its fortunes fail to flip around in the next few days, it will be the first Victorian administration to suffer the indignity of a first term defeat since 1955. Victoria is the first state to face an election since Joe Hockey’s deeply unpopular budget in May. Many key measures remain unresolved more than six months later.
Tasmanians turned conservative in March, sweeping Labour from power after 16 years in office. If South Australians had done the same — the Labour government hung on in a minority administration — the entire country, state and federal, would have had a conservative hue. A Labour win in a big state like Victoria, against a government that won an election just four years ago, would be humiliating for Napthine. But it is hard to deny that it would be a slap in the face for Abbott too, a sign that anger about unpopular policies and broken promises have not faded with time.
An election loss is an invitation to blame, and there are already whispers from the Coalition that their federal colleagues have damaged their chances. The Napthine government has made many errors of its own, but it has a point. Day after day, the government is swept off course by another federal controversy.
Last week, there had been the ABC cuts to regional radio stations and state editions of 7.30, following $254 million (Dh934.2 million) in federal budget cuts. Regional seats around Geelong and Ballarat are critical and country people rely on and love the ABC.
Coalition sources say people in focus groups specifically mention the prospect of $100,000 degrees if university fees are deregulated, saying it is one reason they will not vote Liberal. At the start of the campaign, the federal government announced it would bypass parliament to re-introduce twice-yearly fuel excise increases. Then Hockey added salt to the wound by suggesting the money raised by petrol price rises would help pay for the controversial East West Link. Napthine is normally polite, but even he snapped a little.
“This is a situation where any increase in the cost for fuel for Victorian families and Victorian business will hurt those families and businesses,” he said. “And I would believe these sorts of things should go through the proper parliamentary processes. I will let Tony Abbott know that when I speak to him next.”
Victoria is a proud state, alert to any perceived New South Wales (NSW) favouritism, and there are grumbles that Canberra would have been more careful about the timing of its decisions if an election were being held in NSW. “I almost wonder if they want Napthine to win or not,” said one Coalition observer.
If Labour is victorious, it could be dismissed as another example of the peculiarities of a progressive state which did not really mean to vote for the Coalition in the 2010 election. Abbott’s popularity has fallen across Australia since last year’s election, but in Victoria it has collapsed.
Napthine seems to recoil whenever the prime minister is mentioned. The hug Abbott gave the Victorian premier early this month was painful to watch. Abbott’s only other foray into the campaign was when he declared the election a “referendum on the East West Link”. Napthine flinched. He does not want that, because he knows Victorians want public transport too — something the federal government refuses to fund.
The truth is that the ideological interests of the federal government are not matched by the Napthine government, which has no choice but to be moderate in Victoria. One reason is that state politics is mostly about service delivery these days, with little cause for ideological fervour. The coalition is mostly in the small “l” liberal mould, particularly in its support for multiculturalism.
There will be some truth in blaming Abbott if the Victorian government loses today, but it will not be the whole story. This election seems somehow shrivelled up, a long list of set-piece promises, many tiny, without a larger story. Last Tuesday, Napthine spoke at the Melbourne press club. He listed off promises with little context, an airport rail link one minute, first aid courses for nine-year-old students the next.
At one point, he was asked where the charisma had gone in state politics. “It’s here!” he said. “On Saturday, I was managing a horse that was rearing at the mounting yard at the Ballarat Cup. We’ve been out and about doing a number of things that people may see as charisma.” Then he blamed the media for the lack of “fun” in politics, because anything said off script was over-played. Right now, he is being as polite as he can about his federal colleagues. Does he support the ABC budget cuts? He would not say, repeating that he thought the ABC was Sydney-centric. Does he believe university deregulation would hurt Victorian students and families? He would not bite on that, either. “We want to make sure education is affordable for all Victorians.”
Does he agree with Western Australian premier Colin Barnett that Australia needed to be bolderon climate change action? He skirted around that, too. He was also asked whether Abbott was killing his government’s chances. “I believe the Victorian people are very smart and intelligent voters and I’m sure they’ll vote on Victorian issues,” he said.
It was a pat answer and he said it without conviction. If the government loses today, there may well be, at last, some truth telling.
— Guardian News & Media Ltd
