It will be a mistake to ascribe the defeats of India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the Kairana, Noorpur and Bhandara-Gondiya by-elections in Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra only to the tie-ups among its opponents.
While there is little doubt that in Kairana, an alliance of the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), the Samajwadi Party (SP), the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Congress led to the BJP’s defeat, it is also undeniable that the combine wouldn’t have worked if the Muslims, Dalits, backward castes and the Jats hadn’t turned against the BJP. Their hostility comes at a time when some economists are sanguine about the party’s prospects because of low inflation and high growth (7.7 per cent). But the economy may not boost the party’s fortunes in a context of social fissures.
As former vice-president Hamid Ansari and the Archbishop of Delhi Anil Couto have said, the Muslim and Christian communities are living with a sense of insecurity. The reason apparently is the fear of suddenly being attacked and even killed by saffron groups on one pretext or another. The unhappiness of the Dalits [the so-called untouchables], too, has been obvious in the wake of several instances of lynching and the continuing tension in Uttar Pradesh’s Saharanpur area.
When sizeable sections of the Muslims, who constitute 14.2 per cent of the population, Dalits (16.6 per cent) and Christians (2.3 per cent) are alienated, the BJP’s chances of electoral success cannot be very high. The party did beat the odds in 2014, but that was because of the expectations of rapid, employment-oriented development raised by Narendra Modi. These hopes may still be fulfilled if the present growth rate continues. But jobs cannot provide any solace to people who feel that they are second class citizens, as a retired police officer, Julio Ribeiro, has said.
The angst of the minorities has combined with the realisation among the BJP’s opponents that the only way to win is via electoral tie-ups. This worked in Kairana, where a combined opposition garnered the votes of the Muslims, the Dalits, the backward castes and the Jats. The same tactic worked in Noorpur, where the SP candidate received the support of other opposition parties, and in Bhandara-Gondiya, where the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Congress successfully put up a untied fight against the BJP.
The formula for success against the BJP is clear — unite or perish. As West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee once said, the objective should be to offer the BJP a one-to-one fight by parties which are the most influential in a particular region. The Rashtriya Janata Dal’s three successive victories in Araria, Jehanabad and Jokihat in Bihar against the ruling Janata Dal-United are ample evidence.
The BJP’s win in Palghar, Maharashtra, was due to the Shiv Sena’s overconfidence in going solo. Yet, the Sena’s leader, Uddhav Thackeray, recently spoke of the need for an opposition alliance against the BJP.
The recent by-election victories, along with the formation of the Janata Dal (Secular)-Congress government in Karnataka, are seen as precursors to a combined opposition at the national level. If that is achieved, it presages troubled times for the BJP. The united opposition will be similar to the 24-member coalition government under Atal Bihari Vajpayee which began to fall apart in the aftermath of the 2002 Gujarat riots.
At present, the threat to an anti-BJP alliance is posed by the ambitions of several of its players — Rahul Gandhi, Mamata Banerjee, Mayawati, Sharad Pawar — to become the prime minister. The BJP may be banking on such a discord to stave off any challenge. But the party will nevertheless be aware that the ease with which it ascended to power in 2014 will be absent during the next general election. Prime Minister Modi’s appeal is no longer overwhelming. And his criticism of the Congress has become repetitive — corruption, dynasty, et al. The Congress party paid a heavy price for these sins in 2014 and lambasting it repeatedly runs the risk of what is known in legal terminology as double jeopardy where a person cannot be convicted of the same offence twice.
This throws up the interesting possibility of Modi’s bid to remain an effective campaigner and the opposition moves to counter him while battling its own fissiparous tendencies.
— IANS
Amulya Ganguli is a political analyst in India
