The foreign policy of any nation, its objectives, articulation and execution, reflects its history, its psyche, its strengths and weaknesses, its self-image, what it wishes to project and helps shape how it is viewed. India is no exception.
The pre-independence history of India can be roughly divided into two parts. Kingdoms and empires with many achievements and borders that lay along the Hindu Kush as Jawaharlal Nehru, as the de facto prime minister and foreign minister of undivided India, wrote to remind Afghanistan in 1947 in rejecting its territorial frontier claims. Then the rise of Muslim kingdoms was followed by colonial rule under the British. A desire to reassert past glory and unfettered independence characterised the spirit of the new India from 1947.
The formulation of foreign policy, if not always its implementation, continues to have elements that give it strength, though aggressive pride is a flaw. There has never been a lack of vision with its historical background going back to Kautilya’s Arthashastra. K.N Panikar, a strategist before partition, declared that India’s sphere of influence stretched from the Gulf of Aden to the Straits of Malacca, and must dominate the Indian Ocean. India’s first prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru, and one of its founding fathers, in his Independence Day speech declared that India had a tryst with destiny. He laid the foundation of India’s foreign policy. Areas that were not clearly recognised elsewhere, and which would impact a country’s power potential, such as nuclear energy, were encouraged by him.
The importance he gave to the Ministry of External Affairs led to that institution becoming preeminent in the foreign policy and national security formulation. Of course India’s very territorial size and its population (the second largest in the world), its geographical position and contiguity to the other Asian giant, China, by themselves would give it regional and international importance, irrespective of how well the foreign policy cards were played.
Another quality has been to make allies of countries that are adversarial to each other. Though a leader in the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), after the 1962 border war with China, which was brought about by miscalculation, India turned to America, ready then as now to build up a counter to China. While maintaining links to America, deeper political and defence supplies linkages were developed with the then USSR, which were continued with Russia after the fall of the Soviet Union.
By 2005, the strategic partnership with America, of which the nuclear deal was the jewel in the crown, India displayed realpolitik: Adapting to an increasingly capitalist, globalised world. But skill was employed to benefit from this relationship while frustrating American expectations of selling India nuclear reactors, high-performance aircraft and opening up more India’s own markets.
However, despite these strengths and achievements, playing off all sides for one’s benefit has its own drawbacks. This became apparent to America, though no surprise to India’s neighbours, at the reaction to the controversial and unfortunate treatment of an Indian diplomat in New York recently.
Internal realities influence external perceptions. The internal situation presents vulnerabilities in economic growth, in the Northeast, in Kashmir in the North and the widespread Maoist insurgency in eastern and central India.
The biggest weakness of India’s foreign policy has been its inability to develop good relations with its neighbours, in sharp contrast to China. Relations with China, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal and the Maldives continue to be troubled — with the exception of Bangladesh, but only when a sympathetic government is in power in Dhaka. Major territorial disputes remain unsolved. While India may blame its neighbours, at least with regard to the smaller South Asian states, positive moves would reap major gains for it in the region and boost its international image towards the level it desires.
Looking to the future, there is the prospect of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led government in New Delhi with Narendra Modi as prime minister. Can some new direction be expected? With regard to America and the West? His pro-business approach may lead to more market access and trade. India’s selective policies of cooperating with China, especially on the booming trade front, while building up its border regions and nuclear capacity to project the ability to confront, will both continue. In the region it considers of contiguous importance and influence — its South Asian neighbours, Afghanistan, Central Asia and Iran — trade and development projects where possible, have been a major driver. But trade has meant pushing exports, not a two-way process.
Under Modi and BJP, the thrust on the western flank, supported by America, will be to access Afghanistan and the lucrative markets of Central Asia and its energy resources, backed by prominent business leaders. Towards securing transit access there may be a different nuance towards Pakistan. Whether this will extend to a major breakthrough by resolving issues ripe for resolution — thus increasing Pakistan’s comfort level — is an open question.
So far, the policy has been to manage relations with Pakistan rather than reciprocating that country’s efforts to improve relations to enable it to concentrate on fighting terrorism and internal consolidation, which would also be in India’s own interest. Like prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee in 1999, and again in 2004, Modi may decide to visit Pakistan, which no Indian leader has done since then.
A new factor is the increasing ability of regional parties to influence foreign relations. Tamil Nadu ensured that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh stayed away from the Colombo Commonwealth Summit. The BJP’s ally, the Akali Dal, has its own cross-border Punjab-to-Punjab policy.
Fostering peaceful relations with its neighbours, offering partnership rather than dominance, would unlock both the region and India’s potential. This would require a sea change in India’s powerful foreign policy and national security establishment. It remains to be seen if Modi and the BJP have the vision, the will and ability to seize such an opportunity.
Ambassador Tariq Osman Hyder is a retired Pakistani diplomat and Distinguished Visiting Fellow at the National Defence University.
