Britain’s weakness outside the EU is clear, and public opinion has swung sharply against May’s approach. Don’t think there is no turning back

The United Kingdom is in turmoil. Sixteen months ago, when former prime minister David Cameron announced the date of the European Union (EU) referendum, Britain was the fastest-growing economy in the western world and the envy of Europe. The Brexiteers were convinced that Europe was on its way to ruin. Now Britain is becoming the laughing stock of Europe. The pound has weakened. Inflation is six times higher than the 0.5 per cent it was a year ago. Today, inflation is 2.9 per cent and wage growth is 1.7 per cent.
Europe is growing faster than Britain now.
And the British Prime Minister, Theresa May, who has suffered heavy defeats in the House of Lords and in the general election that she chose to call, has not listened to parliament, business or the people. She has been compared to former prime minister Margaret Thatcher, the lady who was “not for turning”. Yet, May has U-turned time after time — be it on national insurance for the self-employed, the promise that there would be no election before 2020, and even on social-care measures in the manifesto. The prime minister does not just U-turn: She pirouettes more than Darcey Bussell (a retired English ballerina). Britain’s trade negotiators show startling naivety as they enter into what they describe as “high-level dialogues”. It took the Canadians eight years to secure an EU-Canada free trade agreement, but even Canada’s lead trade negotiator, Jason Langrish, has warned that no mutually beneficial deal can be reached.
Trade already makes up 65 per cent of Britain’s gross domestic product. There are few more open trading economies than the UK. It is the third-highest recipient of foreign direct investment in the world, and the highest recipient of foreign direct investment in the EU. To leave the EU would be to leave 50 per cent of UK’s trade — 45 per cent of Britain’s exports and 55 per cent of its imports.
Britain is also negotiating against all the odds. It is one country against 27. It is 65 million whereas the rest numbers 500 million. It is up against the European Commission, the European Parliament and the European Council, and it has a weak minority government .
Liam Fox, UK’s illustrious trade minister, speaks of “going global” and opening up to the new world. The Indian High Commissioner in London, Y.K. Sinha, has said very clearly that India is open to a bilateral trade deal — but there will be no trade deal without looking at the movement of people. Refusing to listen to the UK’s world-class universities, let alone its partners in India and elsewhere who demand stronger ties between Britain’s world-beating universities and theirs, the prime minister still treats students as immigrants in net migration figures.
Yet, international students bring £25 billion (Dh119.64 billion) into the UK, and are one of the strongest forms of soft power in the country. Just look at the realities of a country such as India, with 1.25 billion people. How many bilateral trade deals does India have with the rest of the world? Nine — and not one with a western country. Most of all, Britain is losing its standing and respect in the global community. Its weakness outside the EU has never been clearer.
Now, as many as 53 per cent of the British public back a second referendum, according to a poll by Survation for the Mail on Sunday. British public opinion is very much against the prime minister’s Brexit approach, and if there were a free vote in the House of Commons, 44 per cent would be in favour of Remain, not to mention that 70 per cent of the members of the House of Lords are in favour of Remain. We have been told to respect the will of the people, but don’t think there is no turning back. Young people, who turned out in vast numbers in the general election, could easily sway the result of another referendum in 2019, if that were put on the table. John Kerr (now Lord Kerr), who wrote Article 50, has said time and again that we can unilaterally withdraw.
Prior to triggering Article 50, we had the best of both worlds. Even now, the EU, including the French President, Emmanuel Macron, would welcome Britain back. If that is the will of the people in 2019, that must be respected.
— Guardian News & Media Ltd
Lord Karan Bilimoria is the founder and chairman of Cobra Beer, founding chairman of the UK India Business Council and a crossbench peer.