Some Lebanese despised the Syrian presence in their country. They forgot that Syrian forces were in the country at the request of their government, the Arab and international community to keep peace in the aftermath of the long and brutal civil war.
It was also forgotten that throughout Syrian presence in Lebanon, civilians were not bombed, the country's infrastructure was intact, the economy was recovering and Lebanon was peaceful.
That was not good enough. Syria was called a colonial power that must be removed. The US, Israel and France led many Lebanese and Arab calls for the withdrawal of Syrian forces. When we warned that withdrawal plays into the hands of foreign powers who intend to destroy Hezbollah and with it Lebanon, we were called "conspiracy theorists". Well, we "conspiracy theorists" did not get our wish, unfortunately. Unfortunately too, "conspiracy planners" got their wish.
Rafik Hariri, a supporter of Hezbollah and a friend of Syria, was assassinated. Syria was blamed and forced to withdraw. Nobody explained why the investigation into Hariri's assassination was centred on Syria to the exclusion of those who benefited by blaming Syria and forcing it out of Lebanon, such as Israel, the US and France.
Not long after Syria's withdrawal, Israeli bombs started falling on Lebanon. After all, with Syria out, the other fair game in town is Hezbollah. Conventional wisdom said the Israeli war will be a picnic, a walk- over. Didn't Israel quickly beat Arab armies in previous wars? Wake up, that was in yonder, and the army was not Hezbollah!
Twenty something days later, facing an enemy they cannot see but are sure exists, the US and Israel, sobered down from the intoxication of power, are seeking other avenues. They remind me of my mother's favourite proverb "Intoxication gone, sober thoughts born."
What those who placed their wagers on Israel failed to realise is:
- Israel can fight only quick short battles. Following Israel's six-day 1967 victory, Egypt's president Jamal Abdul Nasser decided to engage Israel in a war of attrition. Israel lost. When the 1973 war extended to 20 days, Israel's army had to be rescued by America's so-called "military air bridge" and an America-sponsored UN Security Council resolution.
- In previous wars with Arab armies, Israel's American war machine easily faced conventional forces whose identities, locations and structures were known. Hezbollah is an unconventional army. Its tactics are feared by conventional armies and its forces are invisible.
- Unlike Arab and Israel's army, Hezbollah's fighters are not going into war focused on coming back alive. They are focused on destroying the enemy. Such a force is difficult to defeat.
- Israel is fighting with the support of governments who themselves have no moral high ground in the eyes of their people. Hezbollah, on the other hand, has emerged as the hero for millions worldwide. It has managed to cross religious and national divides. Clearly, this support is a great morale booster for Hezbollah fighters and demoralising for Israel's. Close to 1,000 people have been killed in Lebanon. Less than 50 are Hezbollah fighters. That Hezbollah is defending a population being massacred is clear to people worldwide. By contrast, Israel is fighting America's war for a "new Middle East". How do you win a public relations battle when your war is identified with the world's "Great Satan"?
Lost the war
Meanwhile, having lost the war, the US and Israel are looking for a semblance of victory. Israel's announcement that it has destroyed Hezbollah's infrastructure was a precursor to a declaration of victory.
However, Hezbollah's 300 missile response, the biggest in a single day, some deeper than ever into Israel, were intended to deny Israel's victory claim. Undoubtedly, Hassan Nasrallah wants a ceasefire, but one that will prove Hezbollah has won and done so in a way that is again very humiliating to Israel and the US.
Nasrallah promised that Hezbollah will ensure this is the last war Israel will fight. For a man known to have kept all his previous promises, it is clear that Nasrallah intends to keep this promise too. Efforts to steal a victory by other means make the next stage very dangerous.
Earlier this week, the US and France agreed on a draft UN resolution calling on a "full cessation of hostilities".
They have proposed a plan they know will be unacceptable. The war, after all, must continue. The intention is to give Israel more time, hoping it will still succeed.
Should Israel, as expected, still fail, a UN multinational force is being assembled. The Americans want the forces to be brought under clause 7 of the UN charter which authorises the UN to use force.
Having failed to destroy Hezbollah themselves, the US and Israel now want soldiers from different countries, disguised as UN peacekeepers, to get killed trying do it for them. The result will be a war between the UN, joined by anti-Hezbollah parties in Lebanon against Hezbollah. Another Lebanese civil war.
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said a UN vote will show who wants peace and who wants war. Those who agree, want peace. Hezbollah and others who reject this devilish plan want war!
"Conspiracy theory?" No, conspiracy plan. However, in the "other" new Middle East, not the one Condoleezza Rice is expecting, intransigence will not ensure Israel's survival, but ensure the opposite. In this war Hezbollah broke the myth of Israel's invincibility.
Munir Daair is a political writer based in Yemen.
