Time for a fresh mandate

It is Europe's biggest economy and is its most important country. But you may be forgiven if you have failed to notice that Germany is holding a general election on Sunday. The campaign culminated on September 13 in a turgid televised duel (swiftly branded "a duet") between the two main candidates for chancellor, Angela Merkel and Frank-Walter Steinmeier. It has all been deeply uninspiring.

That is in large part because it has long been obvious that Merkel will win again. The only (apparently minor) issue has been whether she can form a new coalition between her centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU) and the liberal Free Democrats (FDP) — led by Guido Westerwelle — or is reluctantly obliged to prolong today's "grand coalition" with Steinmeier's Social Democrats (SPD). At present, the second of these looks more likely.

And that should worry Germany.

The grand coalition was imposed on Merkel after the 2005 election, when the CDU did less well and the SPD rather better than most predictions. Many critics were mindful of a previous unhappy grand coalition between 1966 and 1969, but this one has proved more durable. Merkel has shown herself to be a capable and pragmatic political leader and she has remained popular with voters, despite Germany's worst recession since the war. The coalition has even taken a few brave decisions, such as pension reform and sending extra troops to Afghanistan.

Unable or unwilling

Yet, as so often in a forced marriage of opposites, the government has been unable or unwilling to tackle many other pressing problems, such as tax, health care, welfare and labour-market reform.

As the economy has started to recover, Germans seem to believe that all that is needed are a few minor repairs to the public finances, a renewed emphasis on cost control and a prayer that unemployment does not rise too far. If so, they think, they can just sit back and wait for another global boom to revive the great German export machine.

This is profoundly mistaken — and dangerously complacent, even in the short run. Germany's banks look a lot sicker than their bosses have so far admitted. Unemployment, which has been held down before the election by wage subsidies and make-work schemes, is sure to rise soon after the polling stations close. The world economy is certainly improving, but growth is unlikely to be fast enough to save Germany from its problems — and there is a risk that the economy could tip back into recession again.

Far worse, the complacency of voters and politicians alike ignores almost entirely Germany's difficulties. The country's grim demographic outlook could bust the budget; too much regulation and an excessively generous welfare state together hold back job creation and inhibit entrepreneurship; the education system no longer serves secondary-school children or university students well; and there is a pressing need to re-orient the economy away from high savings and a reliance on exports and towards higher consumption.

None of these is easy to deal with. But a fresh Merkel government is far more likely to make the attempt if it takes the form of a CDU-FDP coalition than if it is another grand coalition.

It would also improve German foreign policy. As foreign minister, Steinmeier has proved soft on Russia and his party is turning against the war in Afghanistan. A black-yellow coalition, in which Westerwelle might be foreign minister instead, would be a bit tougher: the FDP is not only the most pro-business of the parties, but also the most pro-American. It has also been the boldest in suggesting tax and welfare reforms.

Travesty of voters' wishes

The polls suggest that German voters have turned against the SPD, which has been in government for 11 years and is likely this time round to register its lowest vote in half a century. The party would benefit from a spell in opposition, where it can debate and come to terms with the case for further reform and yet find a way to win back support from the rising Left party. If the SPD limps on in government, it would be a travesty of voters' wishes.

Yoking together Germany's two Volksparteien (people's parties) in one government tends to stifle the coherent, mainstream opposition that is essential to the cut-and-thrust of policymaking in any democracy. Deprived of choice, disgruntled voters tend to drift towards extremism or apathy. With five parties always likely to win seats in the parliament, it may become all but impossible to have anything other than a grand coalition. What ought to be an emergency arrangement might turn into a permanent one and that would not be good for democracy.

Germans are fond of consensus. Both Merkel and her grand coalition reflect this. Although Merkel briefly espoused radical reforms in the 2005 campaign, she soon dropped them. The hope is that it is less her own nature that has stopped her from putting the case for more reform, than her imprisonment with SPD.

It is time to set Angela free.