The honeymoon has ended

The US-Russian relations have hit their nadir after reaching their zenith in mid-2002 when US President George W. Bush met with Vladimir Putin in Moscow. From then on, the downward spiral in the relations between the two countries continued at a steady pace.

In 2002, some experts considered US-Russian relations as a new form of alliance. But five years down the line, the bond has greatly weakened. Their common goals are no longer the same; doubt and mistrust prevail and neither of them is interested in patching up their differences.

Currently, the two countries have drifted far from one another and at the recent G8 summit held in Germany, their differences were on full display.

We are not about to discuss the disagreements between the Western countries, the US and Russia, as they are many and diverse as well.

The deteriorating US-Russian relations can be attributed to the fact that Russia has decided not to pay the price of the Soviet Union's downfall. The price being paid by Russia has delivered it to an unsafe place. Whereas the US sees that it has to continue to accumulate its profit for playing a role in the end of the Cold War.

Russia disapproves of US plans to deploy an anti-missile shield in Eastern Europe and believes the move may adversely affect global as well as European security

US plans to deploy missile-defence technology in Poland and the Czech Republic brought a sharp response from Russian officials including Putin.

Upon all these given tensions, what will be the atmosphere of the relationship between the US and Russia in the coming years?

What if Russia, which is extremely disappointed with its openness towards the West, starts putting down new policies? What happens if Russia returns to a state controlled economy? What if Moscow adopts a policy of containment instead of cooperating with Europe?

What if Russians start encouraging their government to take stronger measures in dealing with neighbouring countries who have become Nato members? What if Russian voices grow high in opposing Russia's entry to the World Trade Organisation (it is still an observer member)?

What if Russia threatens to suspend participation in an arms treaty limiting conventional forces in Europe signed in 1990 and re-evaluated in 1999?

Threatens

What if Russia threatens to pull out of a landmark nuclear arms control treaty signed in 1987 unless the US backs away from plans to install its missile defence shield in Eastern Europe? If some or all of this agenda takes place, Russian-American relations will witness a new era and the beginning of a new arms race which will not be to the benefit of anyone.

These are some important questions to take into consideration, but will be difficult to answer at this time.

We are certain of one thing though: all the world will be affected by the new cold war environment in various ways. Russia today is different from the former Soviet Union.

It is more pragmatic and many European countries are its friends and allies.

Russia today has an added bonus, for it no longer holds to an ideology which made many countries shy away from it.

Dr Mohammad Akef Jamal is an Iraqi writer based in Dubai.