Tempest ahead for India's Congress party

“The Congress Party looks worn-out and weary. It needs a complete makeover”. The blunt, in-your-face analysis came from a senior Congress leader Mani Shankar Aiyar during a recent interview to the BBC Hindi service.

Aiyar’s words find resonance in the party but there is hardly any leader who dares to speak out loud the way the former diplomat does. It seems he is a lone voice. But, by his own admission, Aiyar remains sidelined in the party for his outspoken views. At least for now.

Many Indian commentators believe India’s oldest party, which was founded in 1885, appears to be in disarray. The parliamentary elections are to be held in a few months’ time but observers say they seem ill-equipped to face a resurgent Bharatiya Janata Party under its controversial but popular prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi. Nearly all recent opinion polls and most political analysts have written the Congress off. They suggest that the governing Congress Party will lose the elections amid a slowing economy and a series of corruption scandals.

At this difficult juncture, the youthful Rahul Gandhi has been assigned to spearhead the party’s election campaign. A tough ask indeed, considering his apparent reluctance to be named his party’s prime ministerial candidate. What he brings on the table is his clean image, a yearning for change, youthful exuberance and lineage. The fifth generation Congress leader lacks no pedigree, as his great-grandfather Jawaharlal Nehru, grandmother Indira Gandhi and father Rajiv Gandhi were all Prime Ministers. But can he revive the party?

The 43-year-old scion of the famed Nehru-Gandhi family comes across as sincere and well-meaning. He speaks about change in the system with passion and conviction. He is pushing for an overhaul in his own party. Indeed, he has already taken a few baby steps at the grassroots level to transform the way the party has been contesting elections. He has introduced the US-style primaries in 15 of the 543 parliamentary constituencies.

This is a pilot project, and the party says that if the project works in the forthcoming general elections Gandhi might replicate it in all constituencies in all future elections. Under this system, a 1,000-member Electoral College consisting of local-level party leaders will elect a candidate who will then be the official Congress Party contender from that parliamentary seat. The trouble is, many are yet to be convinced Rahul Gandhi has what it takes to be a robust leader. The Indian media pilloried him recently following his first long and formal TV interview. He was criticised for sidestepping the serious allegations of corruption facing the Congress-led government. Instead he kept on repeating his desire to change the system which he said was closed for women and ordinary citizens.

Those who seemed sympathetic to Gandhi were also critical of him for missing out on an opportunity to directly attack his rival Narendra Modi. He was said to be using abstract ideas which they said have accentuated the disconnect with the common man — a flaw he has often been accused of.

Conviction and sincerity

The general feeling is that if the Congress party’s defeat in the elections was uncertain before the TV interview, it became certain after it. Gandhi’s publicists say the idea was to project him and his clean image. But many critics claim the interview has not helped achieve the intended purpose. However, even his fiercest critics have admitted Gandhi’s conviction and sincerity shone through.

There is no doubt that Gandhi could have performed much better in the interview, but to suggest he is weak and incapable of leading his party is at best premature.

A lot can change in the run-up to the general elections. Who could have predicted before the Delhi assembly elections two months ago that the anti-corruption Aam Aadmi Party was likely to be a significant factor in the Parliamentary elections? Its leader Arvind Kejriwal, Gandhi and Modi are being talked about in the same breath by the media. Two months ago Kejriwal’s name didn’t figure at this level. [Kejriwal on Friday resigned as Delhi chief minister due to his inability to get the Lok Janpal bill passed.] But his Aam Aadmi Party remains a driving force for the common man at the coming general elections.

Rahul faces tough challenges ahead of the elections. First he needs to galvanise his party and lift spirits among the party faithful. He will have to make sure he fields candidates with no criminal record or who face no corruption charges. But above all, some insiders say, he needs to completely overhaul the party.

But time is not on his side for a comprehensive makeover. He may wait for it until the elections are over. There is a belief among a small group of party leaders that losing the polls this time around will not be catastrophic for India’s largest party. It might just be a blessing in disguise. It’ll give a legitimate reason to Gandhi to bring about the wholesale changes that he says he so craves. It might just help make his grip over the party firmer. If the party doesn’t win in the elections it won’t be a first for it. It has, after each previous setback, bounced back.

Gandhi will still be under 50 when the next general elections happen. Mani Shankar Aiyar certainly believes a defeat this time will be a precursor to wholesale changes in the party which might catapult it on to a period of lasting victories in future elections. No-one fights an election to loose. Gandhi has declared his party will win these elections. But, if he does lose, surely it will not be all doom and gloom for him and his party.

Zubair Ahmed is the political correspondent for bbchindi.com