Smarter use, shared responsibility: The path to water resilience in the Middle East

The Middle East is experiencing several overlapping crises. Among the ongoing wars and conflicts, water scarcity holds an important place in the region’s equations. The Middle East faces a future where water and food security are increasingly under threat, with per capita availability of fresh water falling below the UN’s water poverty threshold of 1,000 cubic metres per person per year. There are also uncertainties about the availability of sufficient quantity and quality of fresh water to sustain livelihoods without negatively impacting people, the environment, and economies.

The entire world is affected by water scarcity to varying degrees. More than one billion people live in areas suffering from water scarcity, and 1.6 billion people face water shortages. However, the Middle East and North Africa are among the regions most severely affected by the water crisis.

According to the United Nations (2023), around 50 million people in the Arab region lack access to basic drinking water, and 390 million people (90% of the total Arab population) suffer from water scarcity.

Water scarcity is a natural phenomenon exacerbated by human intervention. Fresh water on Earth is sufficient for more than 8 billion people (the global population), but it is unevenly distributed across geography and demography.

Human interference in water management has intensified the crisis. Among Arab countries, perhaps only Mauritania enjoys water sufficiency, with per capita availability exceeding 1,700 cubic metres annually.

The Gulf states are among the most water-stressed countries, due to their predominantly desert terrain and reliance on rainfall and groundwater. With growing populations, they have turned to seawater desalination and increased dam construction to capture rain and floodwaters. Recent estimates indicate that the Gulf states produce about 40% of the world’s desalinated seawater.

Overall, water resources in the region are limited, and the semi-arid climate with low rainfall exacerbates the problem. Many countries rely on shared rivers, creating challenges in resource management. Upstream states often exploit geography to control water shares of downstream nations. Nowhere is this clearer than in Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam dispute with Egypt and Turkey’s dam construction on the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, affecting millions of Syrians and Iraqis.

The Nile is Egypt’s primary water source, providing around 55 billion cubic metres annually, while rainfall and groundwater represent a very small share. As a result, Egypt is dangerously approaching the stage of absolute water scarcity, defined by the UN as less than 500 cubic metres per capita annually. To mitigate the crisis, the government has prioritised cultivating less water-intensive crops and invested in desalination projects.

Iraq’s neighbours have encroached on its water share. With worsening shortages, the Iraqi authorities have banned summer farming, including rice cultivation. Many farmers in Najaf province have been forced to abandon their land, as water scarcity has already displaced agricultural communities due to declining water levels in the Tigris and Euphrates.

Syria, Palestine, and Jordan are also not exempt from the water crisis. Israel controls Palestinian water resources, the Golan Heights, southern Lebanon, and the Wazzani River, which feeds into the Jordan River. By controlling these resources, Israel can secure its water needs, putting neighbouring countries at risk during droughts. This policy remains a source of tension and conflict in an already unstable region.

Iran faces recurring crises from water scarcity, declining rainfall, and drought. Managing resources has become a chronic challenge that demands agricultural sector reform, as farming consumes 80% of the country’s water, especially under climate change. In 2021, protests erupted in southwest Iran over water shortages, reflecting how life comes to a standstill in the absence of water.

The Middle East is one of the most water-scarce regions in the world, with climate change worsening the situation. Yet other factors must also be addressed, including population growth, inefficient water management, and aging water and sanitation infrastructure. While the region’s desert climate cannot be changed, widespread environmental degradation can be halted, and adaptation to climate change remains possible. Otherwise, worsening water scarcity will increasingly impact food security, posing threats to livelihoods and ways of life.

Much water is wasted, polluted, or unsustainably managed. There is also a strong link between water scarcity and conflict. Water insecurity exposes states to greater risks and can drag them into external crises. The region suffers from the consequences of unsustainable expansion in water resource use, pollution, and over-extraction of groundwater. Countries are increasingly tapping shallow and deep aquifers for irrigation, but consumption levels far exceed natural recharge rates.

Governments must respond to water scarcity with effective policies. Agriculture remains a vital sector in many countries, and adopting irrigation technologies can offer financial and water-efficient solutions. Hydroponic farming is a promising method, allowing farmers to use less water.

Treated wastewater can also expand supplies for non-domestic use and help mitigate the effects of climate change. People must also conserve and protect water resources. Without significant reductions in consumption, water supplies to households will be disrupted, worsening the crisis. Greater public awareness is essential, with civil society playing a role in promoting conservation until reforms can be implemented through government-society partnerships.

Water scarcity threatens to become a source of conflict in the region. However, by adopting diplomacy to reach fair water-sharing agreements and manage transboundary resources, the region can avoid “water wars.” Regional cooperation through coordination mechanisms is crucial to addressing scarcity through peace rather than conflict and destruction. In the Middle East, water scarcity intersects with desertification, climate change, and mismanagement, raising the risk of social unrest, internal violence, and international disputes. Yet solutions exist: domestically through conservation and modern technologies such as artificial intelligence in water management and more efficient irrigation methods, and internationally through cooperation to prevent the region from descending into new conflicts driven by water disputes.

Rashed Awad Alketbi is a researcher at TRENDS Research & Advisory in the Strategic Studies Department