Scots are now faced with an invidious choice

The Scots are accustomed to having their views ignored in the British political system. In 18 general elections since the Second World War, the Conservatives have had a majority in Scotland only once (1955), yet they have formed the government nine times. Despite voting consistently for the left, Scotland has been governed by Labour for only 30 years out of 68. If England is set to elect the Conservatives, in other words, it is hardly worth going out to vote in Scotland at all: People know what they will get.

However, this democratic flaw could take on a whole new dimension as Westminster drifts inexorably towards holding a referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union (EU). That is because the next British general election can conceivably not merely give the Scots yet another government they did not vote for, but bring on a referendum that can take Britain out of the EU — something that is opposed, by all accounts, by a majority of Scots.

Having the wrong government imposed on you can at least be reversed five years later (if the English so decide). Leaving the EU cannot.

It is widely taken for granted that most Scots, unlike many English, are happy with being in the EU. A recent poll put support for UK Independence party (Ukip) at just 0.2 per cent and last week, one saw its leader, Nigel Farage, fleeing under police protection when he tried to work his charm in Edinburgh. Unfortunately, the small band of protesters who hounded Farage came across as anti-English rather than as thoughtful supporters of the EU (and Scottish first minister Alex Salmond may serve his cause better by condemning every hint of xenophobia among his followers than appearing to condone it).

However, the incident did more than merely expose the ugly (and thankfully almost insignificant) side of Scottish nationalism. It may have been the moment when Farage realised that, as far as Scots are concerned, his Ukip may as well be named English Independence party, because most Scots just do not share his obsession with the evils of Brussels.

Indeed, Scotland’s right to remain in the EU, if it becomes a separate country, has emerged as a major issue in the campaign leading up to next year’s independence referendum, with all parties — whether pro or anti — working on the general assumption that the Scots really care about being in Europe. Unionists (including, bizarrely, the Eurosceptic Tories) try to scare voters with the threat that an independent Scotland will be forced out of the EU; the Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) struggles to persuade voters that will not happen.

But just as there is a majority in favour of remaining in Europe, so there is a majority currently in favour of remaining in the UK. Most Scots, in other words, do not want to change anything — although if greater powers for Holyrood were on offer they would grab them with both hands.

All that could be changed, though, by the rising anti-EU tide south of the border. To put it crudely, the simple way for Scotland to avoid the risk of being cast out of the EU will be to vote for independence from the UK before the English get the chance to vote on Europe.

The political calendar is important. First come the European elections next May: A big showing for Ukip will not only bolster the anti-EU forces in the Conservative party, but also possibly prompt Labour to back the idea of an EU referendum in the next Westminster parliament. Tub-thumping tabloids will then drum voters towards the exit.

Scotland will hold its own referendum, in September 2014, to decide whether to stay in the UK. Not surprisingly, the SNP is already arguing that leaving the UK may be the only way for Scotland to guarantee it remains in the EU.

A poll published in Sunday Times last Sunday suggests the changing mood south of the border can be a game changer. While 36 per cent of Scots polled said they supported independence from the UK under present circumstances (with 44 per cent opposed), the yes vote soared to 44 per cent (with 44 per cent still opposed) when voters were asked how they would vote if it looked as though Britain was going to leave the EU.

Until now, the working assumption has been that an independent Scotland and the rest of the UK will both remain in the EU. However, with Farage and the swivel-eyed loons riding high on the English charts, Scots now have to consider the possibility that they may be there alone. It is a daunting thought. Instead of the cosy arrangement with England that most independence supporters envisage (Queen, currency, open borders, “social union”), there could be passport controls and bureaux de change along the Tweed. Scotland may have to have its own currency, or adopt the euro.

The prospect of a Scotland cut adrift from England and dangling on a very long European anchor may worry even diehard bravehearts. Whatever logic may say, blood is thicker than water and Scotland’s ties with England are surely stronger than with “the continent”. (“Logic”, by the way, says Scots are like the Danes or Swedes, whose social systems and temperament are admired by Scots. But of course, Scots do not share a language or family ties with them, not to mention a land border.)

So Scots now have an invidious choice: Vote next year for independence (and, it is assumed, membership of the EU) and risk that links with England collapse if it then votes to leave Europe in 2017; or vote to stay in the UK and risk being taken out of Europe anyway, courtesy voters down south — thereby losing the European social safeguards that may protect Scotland from the excesses of unelected Tory governments in the future.

It is the bad luck of the Scots. You wait a lifetime for a referendum and then two of the damned things come along at once, each profoundly influencing the other. It is so fiendishly complicated, you almost long for the days when England took Scotland’s decisions for Scots. Almost.

— Guardian News & Media Ltd

Angus Roxburgh is a former BBC Europe correspondent.