While the Arab world struggles to reshape its future out of the fires and blood-letting of revolution, the kingdom of Saudi Arabia, a haven of stability, continues to pursue its goals of growth, modernity and social transformation with great resolve and singleness of purpose.
Driven by the strategic vision of King Abdullah Bin Abdul Aziz, its reformist ruler, the kingdom seems to be the main beneficiary of the Arab Spring, so great is the contrast between its robust progress and the tumult and tremors in countries such as Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and Yemen, not to mention the fratricidal war in Syria.
As the powerhouse of the Arab world, the kingdom cannot ignore the dramatic happenings beyond its borders, but its first priorities would seem to be domestic. A visit to Riyadh for the janadriyah — the Saudi National Guard’s Festival of Heritage and Culture, now in its 27th year — provides a glimpse of what the country is seeking to achieve at home, as well as the dilemmas confronting its foreign policy.
In strictly short-hand terms, one can say that the kingdom is attempting to advance from an oil-based economy to a knowledge-based economy. In order to empower its youthful population, and prepare it for the tasks ahead, prodigious efforts are being made in education, especially in science and technology. Six years ago, there were eight universities in the kingdom: today there are 27, several of them state-of-the-art institutions. Dispersed across the country, they are attracting huge numbers of students, under what is called the NSTIP — the National Science Technology and Innovation Plan.
In addition to the emphasis on high-quality education at home, 150,000 Saudis are studying abroad — including 40,000 in the United States; 16,000 in the UK; and 1,000 in China. One of the king’s own grandsons is studying in China, a pointer to his strategic vision. To cope with the youth bulge, reforms have been launched to open up the economy so as to encourage the private sector and create jobs.
A key aspect of the king’s plan is the promotion of women. There can be no greater symbol of this than the giant campus of the Princess Noora University for Women, which stretches for mile after mile along the airport road, its grandiose buildings linked by an overland as well as an underground rail network. It will be opening its doors to its first students in the coming academic year.
Saudi women — especially the increasingly large numbers of highly-educated ones — are emerging from behind the screens, closets and full-face veils where they have so long been confined. Women intervened vigorously in the janadriyah symposium debates this past week. Indeed, a Saudi woman chaired one of the sessions on the theme of the relationship of intellectuals to power. Women television journalists interviewed the visitors and, at a luncheon given by the king for some 300 janadriyah guests, a score of women were present at their own table in the great reception room.
Close relations
The kingdom cannot, however, ignore the regional upheavals. The crisis in Syria is of particular concern, in view of its potential to destabilise the whole region, especially Jordan and Lebanon. Saudi Arabia’s breach with President Bashar Al Assad, and its condemnation of his strategy of violent repression, is keenly felt because of the close relations the kingdom enjoyed for a quarter of a century with Bashar’s father, President Hafez Al Assad, until his death in 2000.
There is no doubt that King Abdullah is appalled by the continuing killings in Syria and is deeply disappointed with the Syrian president. As he made clear in a short but powerful speech at the luncheon mentioned above, he deplores the vetoes cast at the UN Security Council by Russia and China on February 4, which served to abort an Arab League plan for a transition of power in Damascus
But, so far as one can gather, the king — unlike the leaders of some Gulf States — does not favour arming the Syrian opposition, as this would only lead to more bloodshed. Nor does he at all approve of the call for armed jihad against the Syrian regime by the Muslim Brothers in Jordan and, more particularly, by Ayman Al Jawahiri, who took over the leadership of Al Qaida after the death of Osama Bin Laden.
It is worth recalling that the kingdom considers that Al Qaida tried to steal the mantle of Islam from it. Accordingly, the king conducted his own highly intelligent and non-repressive campaign against Al Qaida, defeating it in the right way, he might argue, by defining for his own population a sense of what it is to be truly Islamic. De-radicalisation centres across the country appear to have done a good job.
The Islamic Republic of Iran poses another major foreign policy dilemma for Saudi diplomacy. There seems little doubt that the king regards the Iranian leadership with considerable suspicion. Some senior Saudis hold Tehran responsible for encouraging rebellious ideas among Shiite communities in Bahrain, North Yemen and in the Eastern Province of the Saudi kingdom itself. The Saudi press has carried reports in recent days of gunfights in the Qatif province between security forces and ‘masked persons’, in which a number of people have been killed and injured.
But there is also a widespread understanding in Saudi circles that Iran is a neighbour with which the kingdom has to compose. There seems to be little support in the kingdom for the crippling sanctions which the United States and Europe have, under Israeli pressure, imposed on Iran. Many Saudis prefer to see Iran as a potential partner, rather than an enemy — which was indeed the theme of a public discussion at this year’s janadriyah. There is full recognition of the fact that war between Iran and the US, or between Iran and Israel, could be catastrophic for the Arab Gulf States, as they could find themselves in the line of fire.
Relations with the US pose perhaps the greatest puzzle of all for Saudi Arabia’s ruling family. America’s blind support for Israel in its continued oppression and dispossession of the Palestinians has put the decades-long Saudi-American alliance under considerable strain. Anxious to forge a participatory form of government, the Saudi leadership cannot ignore the great hostility towards Israel felt by the bulk of its population.
With its vast resources, dynamic development and wise leadership, Saudi Arabia has emerged as the still centre of an Arab world wracked by revolution. It is by no means an easy role to play.
Patrick Seale is a commentator and author of several books on Middle East affairs.
