Sarkozy has his task cut out

The game is becoming routine. Every autumn, all French ambassadors gather in Paris. This is an occasion to speak about professional matters and to have a brainstorming exercise on French diplomacy. This is also the occasion for the French president to deliver a speech on his vision of the situation in the world and the role that France can or must play.

This year, the exercise was particularly important. This was the first big speech on international affairs for the new elected President Nicolas Sarkozy. The issue of foreign policy was absent during campaining for the presidency. Once he became president, Sarkozy wanted to send a message to the French.

Preventing a conflict between the Western world and Islam is the top priority for Sarkozy. He said this issue was the most significant for the world's future. Sarkozy believes a clash of civilisations is the main goal of groups like Al Qaida, which dream of establishing a new caliphate from Indonesia to Nigeria. They reject any openness, modernity or diversity. Had those groups reached their objectives, the forthcoming century would be worse than the former one.

This view is widely shared. The new dimension lies in the fact that for the first time, Sarkozy spoke about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, establishing a link between it and a would-be clash of civilisations. Usually, Israel's friends deny any linkage between the Israeli-Palestinian issue and a confrontation between the Western and Muslim worlds.

Outspoken

Traditionally, Sarkozy has been introduced both in France and in Israel, as a friend of Israel. He is happy to be outspoken on this issue. He declared once again during his speech: "I am considered a friend of Israel. It is true and I will never compromise on Israel's security."

Before being elected president, he visited Israel many times but has never been to the Occupied Territories. He has said he was in favour of the two-state solution but this is not significant. Everybody is officially following this line, including George W. Bush and Ehud Olmert.

The real challenge is to set the guidelines to reach such a solution. In the past, Sarkozy has been mute on this subject. During his speech, he was more clear-cut, remembering the Clinton Parameters and the Taba legacy. These two proposals formulate a global agreement which is far removed from the current Israeli propositions.

They seek a comprehensive Israeli withdrawal from the occupied Palestinian territories. They also foresee Occupied Jerusalem as a shared capital of the two states. But Sarkozy did not mention the King Abdullah plan.

Sarkozy declared that a real solution could only be negotiated between Israelis and Palestinians. But he delivered a warning as well. If peace talks lead to the creation of a Palestinian state, Hamas would be strengthened, and the events in Gaza will be repeated with the result that the control of all Palestinian territories will come under Hamas.

Back in time, Sarkozy often criticised the so-called French-Arab policy. Many backers of this policy want France to stop supporting the Palestinian cause and to stop criticising Israeli behaviour. For them, Sarkozy has changed. He is and continues to be culturally and politically closer to Americans and Israelis than Arabs. But he is also pragmatic. He recognises now not only the centrality of the conflict but also that its perpetuation is a factor in the worsening the relations between the West and the Muslim world.

The French president has also insisted on his project of Mediterranean union. He tends to consider it a tool to fight against a clash of civilisation.

Regarding Iran, many observers have noticed the hawkishness of Sarkozy's stance. According to Sarkozy, the Iranian crisis is the most serious crisis on the international stage. He reaffirmed his opposition to Iran's potential acquisition of nuclear weapons capability.

Actually, a war with Iran would be a strategic disaster. But on top of that, for Sarkozy, and other European leaders, this war could either mean not following Washington and getting into a deep crisis with the United States - or following the US and neglecting public opinion at home.

Dr Pascal Boniface is the founder and director of IRIS (Institut de Relations Internationales et Stratégiques). He has published or edited more than 40 books dealing with international relations, nuclear deterrence and disarmament, European security and French international policy.