Preventing a potential catastrophe

Until recently, Syria and Saudi Arabia had reasoned — never too late — that what united them on Iraq was greater than what divided them for five years over Lebanon.

Having said that, in order to fully concentrate on Iraq, the two sides needed peace and quiet in Beirut, something that is becoming increasingly difficult in light of all that is being said about the international tribunal on the 2005 murder of Rafik Hariri.

As clear from the recent summit that brought Syrian President Bashar Al Assad and Saudi King Abdullah Bin Abdul Aziz to Beirut, Lebanon is once again on top of the agenda of both countries.

The Syrians and Saudis have done it before in 1958 when they helped broker a cease-fire during the first civil war, and once again in 1989, during the Taif Accords. For all practical purposes, they can do it again now. So much has changed in the balance of power in the Middle East, but so much remains the same in terms of who can deliver in Lebanon.

According to Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, the upcoming indictment by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) will name Hezbollah officials in Hariri's murder. Such a scenario has raised eyebrows in Syria and Saudi Arabia.

Damascus is pushing for abolishing STL, claiming that it has brought nothing but disaster to the Middle East. The latest summit in Beirut aimed at talking Lebanese Prime Minister Sa'ad Hariri into making a U-turn on the STL, both in his capacity as premier and as son of the slain former prime minister.

Only King Abdullah, who commands tremendous respect from the Hariri family, can do that and only President Al Assad can talk his Hezbollah allies into cooperating with the Lebanese premier.

The Saudi King fears that if not prevented, the Hezbollah indictment will shrink Hariri's chances of remaining prime minister. Too much is at stake for the Saudis in Lebanon, politically, financially, and emotionally.

The only way to save Lebanon from the looming catastrophe is to go full tilt in appeasing Hezbollah, through Syrian mediation, and thereby weakening the STL. Syrians believe that Hariri needs to come out and repeat what Nasrallah said that the STL is "an Israeli project" so long as it has not investigated the possibility of an Israeli hand.

Saudi Arabia was not happy with internationalising the Hariri inquiry. It believes however, that postponing the indictments, for now, is a temporary solution to the crisis, while Syria wants the tribunal scrapped.

Additionally, Saudi Arabia now believes more than ever that both Syria and Hezbollah had nothing to do with the Hariri affair. Hariri and his Saudi backers realise that there is something fishy about the tribunal, given the repeated resignation of judges, the high number of false witnesses, and the fact that contrary to what the Hariri family wanted — a clean judicial investigation — the tribunal has been politicised by international players.

Thanks to Saudi advice, Hariri is beginning to ask the same questions raised by Syria and Hezbollah: Why has there been no investigation into Israeli involvement? Why is it that so many false witnesses were allowed into the investigation, on whose testimonies were the first findings of Detlev Mehlis published in October 2005? Why have several witnesses like Zuhair Al Seddiqi suddenly disappeared? Why were four generals arrested in 2005 released?

The Lebanon affair is complex. However, hope has risen that the S-S factor (a term coined by Speaker Nabih Berri in reference to Syria and Saudi Arabia) can solve just about anything related to Lebanon. By all accounts the Saudi King came to Damascus and Beirut only to listen to what all sides have to say, stressing nothing but dialogue at this stage, while presenting no final solution to the snowballing crisis.

Nasrallah, after all, is not ready for direct talks with Hariri unless the Prime Minister makes up his mind about what to do with the STL. Only King Abdullah can avert an earthquake in Lebanon and Syria is relying on his monumental influence to yield results from Hariri. From where things stand today, the situation can still be salvaged, since nothing concrete has come out of the STL, signalling that there is room for hope.

Sami Moubayed is editor -in-chief of Forward Magazine in Syria.