'President' Obama and the Mideast

Barring an unforeseen surprise, Barack Obama will be elected the 44th President of the United States of America on November 4, which will usher in a new era in international affairs. How will this election affect the Middle East?

A few days ago in Ohio, Obama told his audience that the choice in front of them was clear: "Hope over fear, unity over division, [and] the promise of change over the power of the status quo." He called on Americans to "come together as one nation, and one people, and once more choose our better history," and promised, "not just [to] win this election, but… change this country and…the world."
If these sentiments sounded optimistic, they reflected a belief that the time was right to detoxify Washington and, though a majority of Americans do not realise how much of the country's prestige was lost under the Bush administration, restore some of its excellence.

Still, and while President Obama will have immense powers at his disposal, Washington's ingrained pro-Israeli bias will not change, even if he may quickly appoint a personality like Colin Powell to work towards a comprehensive peace initiative to mimic the one that was first enunciated by Saudi Arabia at the 2002 Beirut Arab League Summit.

It may be useful to recall that Bush sided with Ariel Sharon in 2000 and literally dismissed the late Yasser Arafat from his roster of worthy leaders. Consequently, this negligence deleted all of the progress that was painstakingly accomplished since the Oslo Accords, and while Bush finally recognised the necessity for an independent Palestinian State in June 2002, his promises went astray.

Obama will not push for grandiose democracy plans for the Palestinians — or anyone else for that matter — but may insist that Palestinians and Israelis alike keep their pledges. Moreover, because of pressing economic concerns, which will pre-occupy the White House during Obama's first two years in office, the new president may not engage on this question quickly.
On the other hand, Obama will be tested in Lebanon, when the validity of the 2005 Cedar Revolution will go on "trial," during the Spring 2009 municipal elections.

With a growing commitment to the Lebanese Army, various resolutions of the United Nations' Security Council (from 1559 to 1701), acute Hezbollah-Israel border disputes, as well as the forthcoming International Tribunal to get to the bottom of the Hariri assassination, Obama will have his plate full. Unlike Bush's 2006 errors — when the US defended Israel and failed to call for a ceasefire even as the number of Lebanese civilian casualties grew — Obama cannot afford to fall into such a trap.

Engagement

In fact, Obama knows that the United States is already entangled in Afghanistan and Iraq, and does not wish to tumble into a third ambush in Lebanon or, worse, by declaring war on Iran. Campaign rhetoric aside, chances are excellent that more emphasis will be placed on Afghanistan, and not only in terms of military assistance. Rather, Obama understands that beyond Osama Bin Laden or Mullah Omar, millions of Afghans need serious help if the West is to win them over from the Taliban.

He recognises that better ways must be devised to triumph, not to engage in a perpetual war against terrorism, but to address core reasons why terrorists strive in such environments.

Where the White House might introduce genuine changes will be in Iraq as American combat troops are gradually replaced with peacekeepers that will assist Baghdad to regain control over the country. Obama will abandon the lies that drew the United States into the Iraq quagmire, and appreciates that this conflict allowed Iran, which is going nuclear, to emerge as a new regional hegemon.

Indeed, whether Obama will learn how to live with a nuclear Iran, will surely define his presidency.
American leaders know that their mandates leave permanent scars on the world and while they strive to promote intrinsic interests, most fail to appreciate their impact on many societies.

In an ironic experiment, the Economist is attempting to provide an answer by calling anyone to log online, and vote for either Obama or John McCain.

The idea is to create a "Global Electoral College" but, in reality, the assessment provides an outlet for individuals everywhere. Not surprisingly, most chose Obama, in what can only be described as an overwhelming vote (85 per cent to 15 per cent). Ironically, only "voters" in Iraq stand with McCain (63-38), though a few countries are leaning towards the Republican. There are a few toss-ups (Sudan and Algeria), but the majority, including most of the Gulf States [Bahrain 95-5, Kuwait 79-21, Oman 97-3, Qatar 95-5, Saudi Arabia 89-11 and the UAE 94-6] is with Obama.

Even Iran (85-15), Pakistan (81-19), as well as internet-savvy Lebanon (87-13), have majorities siding with Obama.
Of course, this exploration is in jest but not too far from reality. In fact, chances are excellent that Obama will win next Tuesday because enough Americans are finally awakening that their global imprint needs rectification, for their own good.

The torch is about to pass to someone with a set of clean hands. Still, it is important not to be overwhelmed by the epochal change, and Middle Easterners in particular are well advised to harbour very low expectations to avoid serious disappointments.

Dr. Joseph A. Kechichian is a commentator and author of several books on Gulf affairs.