Power, protectionism, and the remaking of global trade

The contemporary global order is being reshaped by the intensification of trade wars, the resurgence of protectionist policies, and the expansionist policies of major powers. What began as tariff skirmishes has evolved into a broader contest over technological dominance, supply chain sovereignty, and geopolitical influence. This environment is increasingly defined by the imperial ambitions of great powers, the expansion of national security-driven economic strategies, and the increasing global rivalry between great powers.

The trade war between the United States (US) and China symbolises this transformation. The US initiated a sweeping array of tariffs targeting Chinese goods, citing unfair trade practices and national security risks. China responded with its own countermeasures, creating a tit-for-tat dynamic that destabilised global markets. These moves did not merely represent disputes over trade deficits; they embodied a strategic decoupling, especially in sectors such as semiconductors, aviation, and artificial intelligence (AI).

This form of economic nationalism is not exclusive to the US. Both China and the European Union have adopted protectionist tools to shield strategic industries. Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative and its aggressive regional trade pacts further underscore its imperial economic strategy, designed to enhance dependency on Chinese markets and financial systems. Simultaneously, Southeast Asian states, such as Vietnam and Malaysia, find themselves in a precarious balancing act, navigating between US pressure and Chinese inducements — each wrapped in strategic calculations, not just commerce.

What underpins this global shift is the erosion of the post-Cold War liberal economic consensus. Globalisation, once presumed irreversible, now faces pushback from states reasserting control over cross-border capital, data, and resources.

The Trump administration’s approach redefined trade policy as an extension of national security, abandoning multilateralism in favour of coercive bilateralism. This “America First” and “Make America Great Again” model was less an aberration and more an early signal of an emerging global norm: trade tools are wielded for geopolitical gain and used as foreign policy tool.

These developments signal a broader trend toward expansionist and neo-imperial statecraft. The resurgence of great power rivalry is not just a reaction to immediate threats but a deliberate strategic posture. The global arena is increasingly marked by spheres of influence, contested economic corridors, and competitive infrastructure diplomacy.

The overall outcome is that “the old world is dying, the new one struggles to be born. Now is the time of monsters,” if we remember Antonio Gramsci’s words few years before World War II. The current world order is deeply fragmented and fractured, not just multipolar — driven by home-shoring/friend-shoring, transactional alliances, and tactical confrontations. In this emerging order, economic tools are inseparable from military and diplomatic strategies. Trade routes, technology standards, and currency zones are battlegrounds in their own right.

What is at stake for influential middle powers in the Middle East is not merely the architecture of global commerce, but the foundational principles of multilateralism, economic openness, and strategic neutrality that have long underpinned peace and cooperation since the mid-20th century. As the global order transitions into an era marked by protectionism, techno-nationalism, and strategic decoupling, our region faces both significant challenges and unique opportunities.

In this contested world, influence is no longer asserted solely through traditional diplomacy or military projection, but increasingly through supply chain access, digital infrastructure control, and the ability to shape global standards — domains where the Gulf states, with their sovereign wealth, forward-leaning governance, and neutral positioning, can play a convening and mediating role.

In doing so, they not only protect their national interests but also position themselves as key architects of a more plural, yet stable, global order.

Dr Serhat S. Çubukcuoglu and Dr Ayman Eldessouki are senior researchers at Trends Research & Advisory