Trump, tariffs and a changing world order

‘Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free’ - the iconic words inscribed on the Statue of Liberty have been an abiding promise, a symbol of the great American Dream. In Trump’s America, however, this ethos is being stripped, and unfortunately, what happens in the country does not stay in the country. At the time of writing this, I can only say, fasten your seatbelts!

It is hard to imagine that in the modern era unpredictability and instability are rippling down from the United States to be felt across nations and economies. But here we are under Trump 2.0, shaken and stirred. Twenty-four hours after his call for ‘Liberation Day,’ while the President played golf, there was a bloodbath on global markets. And it was not a one-off incident. The Sensex in India felt the shocks and saw investor wealth of over Rs20 trillion obliterated in seconds. Behind the big numbers is the wiping out of lifetime savings for global investors.

It is no exaggeration, the world is reeling as 60 nations, including India, face Trump’s tariffs. The President claims his actions are a ‘medicine’ to reverse past, unfair trade practices. More likely, it is a bitter pill even for those who signed up to ‘Make America Great Again.’ In this season of rumours, calculations and free-flowing commentary, it is still too early to assess the extent of the implications, but the direction of the wind is not encouraging.

Saturday Night Live calls it ‘Make America Great Depression Again,’ referring to the 1930s. So, while countries weigh in carefully and take tentative steps (barring China) around the chaos unleashed, the dreaded word ‘recession’ is now beginning to sound like a drumbeat. Goldman Sachs has raised the US recession risk to 45%

In such scenarios, upheaval on the ground cannot be overestimated. It is not just global economies that found their rhythm after the pandemic; citizens who have seen employment and personal income fluctuate during Covid-19 are once again facing uncertainty. Inflation, job loss and a decline in consumer spending are the top-layer repercussions if the scenario unfolds. Peeling the layers will only add to the doom and gloom forecasts.

In Trump’s tumultuous world order, panic and mayhem are coalescing with all of the above even as he tests constitutional boundaries. The question is, what next?

Ironically, in his promise of MAGA, Trump’s moves have made even the lives of his own voters unstable. Three months since he took over, the honeymoon is over. Protestors across the US took part in rallies against the President and Elon Musk for a ‘hostile takeover.’ Their anger against capitalism and capitulation was also directed at Elon Musk, under whose DOGE department layoffs have reportedly hit the highest since the pandemic. Upending quality of life would hit at the nerve centre of the American Dream.

There is universal fear and uncertainty. Immigrants, living legally in the country, live in apprehension of being arrested or deported in handcuffs, like the hundred Indians who landed home with their feet chained. With 2.8 million people, Indians are among the largest immigrant groups in the US. As things stand, human dignity itself is no longer guaranteed.

Universities, including some of the prestigious Ivy League, have also faced Trump’s measures and seen a slashing of grants for Gaza protests on campus. For the first time in decades, families, especially from other countries, are uncertain about the big league for their children. As scholarships and research funding are tightened, it is no longer just a monetary concern. At the same time, federal funds for health and social security, along with policies, are being phased out as generously as Musk’s tweets on X.

For long, America extended its hand to motley crews of global citizens as they fulfilled their aspirations and found respect and dignity along the way. It is where Silicon Valley wedded ideas to technology and where Hollywood’s glamour was the cherry on top. Even without such lofty standards, the overwhelming feeling is of a nation gone rogue. Fox News quotes US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, “Don’t retaliate, sit back, just take it in. If you retaliate, this will escalate.”

While Trump’s decisions are unilateral, his administration naturally parrots the rhetoric. ‘Trump Is Gaslighting Us,’ screams a headline by The Atlantic. This is the same organisation whose editor in chief, Jeffrey Goldberg, was mistakenly included on a private group chat on Signal in which high-ranking Trump officials were discussing military strikes in Yemen.

Even as conversations are centred on tariffs, livelihoods and personal liberty, another frontier, a potentially catastrophic one, has been opened. Tensions in the Middle East ratcheted after the American President threatened to bomb Iran if it did not agree to direct negotiations on its nuclear programme. Tehran dismisses the demand as meaningless, and its military is on high alert. A state-run Iranian newspaper has called for Trump’s assassination. While talks on annexing Greenland and Canada are in line with Trump’s go big or go home talk, Iran, with its nuclear arsenal, is not a playground even for the big boys. Gaza has paid an unimaginable human cost; a statesman would look to make sure there is no more.

In this coercive, disruptive order, what is the endgame? “America has always been at war with its darker nature, and sometimes that darker nature wins,” puts forth New York Times columnist David French. There is one clarity. If Trump can slap a 10 percent tariff on the remote Heard and McDonald Islands inhabited only by penguins, nothing and no one is off the table.

Jyotsna Mohan is a journalist with nearly three decades of experience in TV, print and digital media. She is also the author of Pratap, A defiant Newspaper and Stoned, Shamed, Depressed.