Is the Trump–Xi Busan breakthrough a real détente or a pause?

Under the global gaze, the United Sates President Donald Trump and the President of the People’s Republic of China Xi Jinping held their first meeting since 2019 in Busan, South Korea. Their meeting aimed to tackle the growing trade tensions between the two countries. Subsequently, their efforts to reach a consensus led to several decisions made by the two presidents. Most importantly, China agreed to increase the control on the chemicals used for “fentanyl”, a synthetic opioid that has caused many overdose casualties in the US. In return, the US agreed to cut the “fentanyl” tariff on the Chinese imports from 20% to 10%, making the overall tariffs on the imports 47%. In addition to other bilateral agreements from both sides, China has agreed to ease the process of buying rare earths, a group of metals used for electronic products.

The spotlight is now on whether the consensus reached in Busan is a détente or merely a temporary pause of escalation. The two presidents have made it clear that US-China relations should be managed and sustained, in contrast to the increasing tensions of the past.

Nevertheless, the outcome of the meeting is clear that both sides are positive about the future relationship between the two countries with the US president calling it a 12 out of 10 meeting. The presidents agreed to meet twice within the next year in efforts to resume the talks and deepen cooperation between the US and China. However, US-China relations have been turbulent in the past year, which may lead to the slow digestion of the issues discussed in the meeting as the agreement may be renegotiated and renewed in the following year.

One difficulty over having a prolonged vision in their talks is Trump’s unpredictable policy, as he has changed the tariffs on China eight times in the first six months of 2025. Moreover, China’s emergence into a major economic superpower plays a significant role into the terms of the agreement. To set into perspective, since the start of the US-China trade war in Trump’s first term, China took initiatives to strengthen industry giants such as Huawei, Build Your Dreams (BYD), and China Rare Earths group as a form of retaliation, embodying the rise of their economy. On the other hand, the US would want to retain its status as a global system leader.

Being the world’s largest merchandise exporter, China’s ambition to become a global superpower may affect the consensus reached. Although such challenges arise, the presidents have made it clear that two of the world’s greatest countries are working together to establish a framework and structure for a future trade deal is in place. Furthermore, the two presidents agreed to improve the cooperation in the fields of economy, trade, and energy. Xi has noted that cooperating with the US would result in long-term benefits for both countries.

To sum it up, the endeavors taken by Trump and Xi has shown an outline for broader diplomatic US-China relationship, but while the turbulent history and the challenges that arise it can prompt the outcome of the meeting to be a temporary truce rather than durable peace. The conclusion of the meeting in Busan may have a blurred future, but it is in fact a promising start to a plausible détente. To that end, the anticipation is now growing larger on China hosting APEC and the US to be hosting G20 summit in 2026.

Rashid Alzaabi is a Researcher at TRENDS Research & Advisory