Political paralysis in Pakistan

Pakistan's deepening political crisis escalated dramatically last week when the Supreme Court initiated contempt proceedings against Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani. With the army seemingly giving full backing to the courts, the judgment could lead eventually, to the dismissal of Asif Ali Zardari, the president. A new interim government and early elections await, but neither will address Pakistan's fundamental problems.

Every political crisis the country has faced since the 1950s has been a result of civilians trying to wrest power and control from the military. This crisis is no different except for one important aspect — the military has no intention of seizing power. Instead, it has allied with the Supreme Court in an attempt to dispose of a government that is widely perceived to be corrupt and irresponsible.

But in an age when hopes of democracy are spreading through the Arab world and powerful armies in countries such as Thailand and Turkey have learnt to live under civilian control, Pakistan is an ongoing tragedy. Its military refuses to give up its privileges, power and huge stakes in the economy. Its politicians refuse to govern wisely or honestly and decline to carry out basic economic reforms — such as taxing themselves.

The crisis would be more manageable if Pakistan were not of such interest to the rest of the world. However, it is clearly troubling for a nuclear power to be tipping into economic and political disarray. More than ever, the US and Nato need Islamabad's support in dealing with Iran and its help in extracting themselves from Afghanistan.

In the past, friends such as the US, the UK or Saudi Arabia have been able to mediate between political factions and the army, but this time nobody is trying to play such a role. No country wants to back a military that sponsors extremism, yet no country can afford to support a government that is so inept.

Pakistanis face a similar dilemma. One reason the army is so wary of a coup is that it knows that having staged four coups and messed up the country's political progress so completely, a large section of the population would never support yet another military takeover.

In the past year Pakistan has become increasingly isolated, even in its own neighbourhood, while the 60-year-old relationship with the US has collapsed — something for which both sides are to blame. The killing of 24 Pakistani soldiers by US helicopters in November on the border with Afghanistan was the last straw for Islamabad.

War of words

To the frustration of Nato forces, Pakistan has continued to support the Taliban even while the government called for talks between the Taliban, the US and Kabul. Dialogue is finally under way but the three sides have, in effect, bypassed Pakistan, thus further infuriating the military.

In the past few weeks the army and the prime minister have engaged in an escalating war of words, with Gilani insisting that there cannot be a state within a state run by the military and that the army is breaking the law. The army, in turn, has accused him of violating the constitution and telling lies. A separate battle has ensued between the courts and the government, with Gilani insisting that parliament is supreme and he should be able to govern without court interference.

Meanwhile, the country is paralysed with energy shortages and the near collapse of the railways. There is a continuing war against the Pakistani Taliban and sectarian extremists. Every week dozens of people are killed in suicide attacks, bombings and shootings. All this has made Gilani extremely unpopular.

But the military cannot afford a coup, nor does it need one. Once the courts eventually order the expected dismissal of Gilani, and perhaps of Zardari, the army and opposition politicians can apply pressure on the two leaders to accept the court's verdicts and resign.

What would follow would be an interim government, with general elections within three months. That may not be such a bad thing. But what is really needed are politicians that put Pakistanis ahead of their own interests and an army that creates the secure space for that to happen. Unfortunately, Pakistan's tragedy is that nothing is in place to prevent crises occurring time and time again.

— Financial Times

Ahmed Rashid is author of Descent into Chaos.